聚酯周报：地缘政治影响原油，聚酯偏强运行-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish, with expectations of a strong performance mainly driven by the supply side [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market remains strong, influenced by speculative funds and improved production economics due to favorable spreads. The PTA market shows mixed signals, with high consumption but negative feedback from polyester factory cuts and weakening basis. The overall polyester market is expected to be strong based on supply - side drivers [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. The PX market is strong, driven by speculative funds and improved production economics as gasoline blending profits decline and PX - related spreads widen [4]. - Demand: Bearish. High PTA consumption but negative feedback from polyester factory cuts and early maintenance, leading to weakening basis [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. PTA port inventory decreased by 40,000 tons, and major polyester factories are selling PTA spot [4]. - Basis: Bullish. PTA basis is weakening, and profits are expanding [4]. - Profit: Bullish. The PX - naphtha spread reaches $360, and PTA processing fees expand to around 350 yuan [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. PTA prices have rebounded above 5000 yuan, and overseas PX plants are increasing loads due to profit expansion [4]. - Macro Policy: Neutral. Geopolitical events in the Middle East and the US - Venezuela situation have not caused significant supply disruptions [4][11]. - Investment View: Bullish. Expected to be strong mainly due to supply - side drivers [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - sided trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Crude Oil: Geopolitical disturbances have led to a strong oil price. Tensions in the Middle East and the US - Venezuela situation have had limited impact on the market [7][11]. - Gasoline: In the US, gasoline inventories are increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. Gasoline cracking profits are also weakening [12][17]. - Global Market: The global aromatics and refining market is quiet. US refinery utilization is high, but gasoline production is down, and inventories are up [34]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - PX: Supply is increasing, but the market is expected to be strong. Driven by speculative funds and improved production economics [37][79]. - MX: The market is influenced by PX. Although gasoline fundamentals are weak, high PX - MX and MX - naphtha spreads support the aromatics path. Supply may increase in the future, and the US export window is mostly closed [63][70]. - Toluene: Prices are falling, and disproportionation profits are expanding. The aromatics - to - gasoline price spread is shrinking [64][71]. - Reform Profits: Both gasoline reform and aromatics reform profits are strengthening [79]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene Glycol: Overseas plant maintenance plans are increasing. Port inventories in East China are stable at around 700,000 tons. The market is seeking support, and new plant startups may increase supply pressure [89][90]. - Gasoline: Asian gasoline profits are strong, waiting for domestic gasoline exports [91]. - Polyester: Demand is seasonally weak. Policy changes may affect the polyester market [97][107].