沪铝再创新高，短线延续强势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen significantly, and market sentiment remains optimistic Meanwhile, the tense international situation has increased the risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a general rise in the metal market, including a sharp increase in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Aluminum prices, both domestic and international, have also increased [3] - Technically, LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have reached new highs, with a strong technical pattern. SHFE aluminum has seen a decrease in trading volume and an increase in open interest, indicating an optimistic market sentiment. In the short term, aluminum prices are strong and may continue to rise [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Environment - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the tense international situation has raised risk - aversion sentiment, causing a general rise in the metal market [3] - The unclear situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the improved prospects of Fed interest rate cuts have further boosted market optimism [4] Aluminum Market Data - Today, SHFE aluminum closed at 24,650, and the spot price was 24,340, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 310 points. This week, SHFE aluminum has risen significantly, with a spot discount of - 120 yuan, indicating oversupply and poor spot trading [3] - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the alumina inventory has increased slightly. The inventory of SHFE aluminum has increased, while the LME inventory has decreased. The LME spot has turned to a premium of 8 US dollars, indicating a significant improvement in overseas spot demand [3] - This week, the RMB exchange rate has risen, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices has slightly increased to 7.7, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [3] Technical Analysis - Today, WTI crude oil has fluctuated, while LME aluminum has risen sharply to a new high, trading around 3,168 US dollars. SHFE aluminum has also risen sharply to a new high, closing at 24,650, with a strong technical pattern [4] - SHFE aluminum has seen a decrease in trading volume and an increase in open interest, rising with increased positions, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment [4] Future Outlook - In the short term, aluminum prices are strong and may continue to rise. The future focus should be on the divergence between SHFE aluminum and SHFE copper fluctuations and the situation of spot demand [4]