原周报（LG）：原木期货低位运行，短期缺乏利多驱动-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log futures are running at a low level, and the spot price shows signs of a certain bottom - rebound, but the January FOB quotes continue to weaken, and there is a lack of bullish drivers overall [3][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 1 (8% week - on - week), and the total arrival volume was about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters (17% week - on - week) [3] - Demand: From December 29th, 2025 to January 4th, 2026, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% from the previous week [3][32][35] - Inventory: As of January 2nd, 2026, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters (5.12% week - on - week) [3][31][32] - Valuation: The current log futures price is basically the same as the log delivery cost, in a reasonable range [3] - Investment Viewpoint: The log futures have reached a reasonable range, but there is a lack of bullish drivers - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading and arbitrage strategies are not provided; attention should be paid to domestic demand [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Market: The log futures fluctuated at a low level this week without a fundamental improvement. The total log futures contract positions were 15,862 lots as of January 9th, 2025, an increase of 6.15% from the previous week; the main contract positions were 11,930 lots, an increase of 4.8% [7][11] - Spot Market: As of January 9th, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained basically stable. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, both unchanged week - on - week [16][38] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In November 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.86% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. From January to November 2025, the total was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07%. In November 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.7876 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 19.50% and a year - on - year increase of 12.50%. From January to November 2025, the total was about 16.7954 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.84% [21] - New Zealand Shipping Volume: In December 2025, the number of departing ships of New Zealand logs was about 52, an increase of 3 month - on - month, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase from October [26] - Inventory: As of January 2nd, 2026, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 5.12% week - on - week; radiata pine inventory was 2.28 million cubic meters, an increase of 5.56% week - on - week; North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, an increase of 42.86% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 140,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters [31][32] - Outbound Volume: From December 29th, 2025 to January 4th, 2026, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports increased by 3.58%, while that at Jiangsu ports decreased by 11.07% [32][35]