有色日报：有色普涨-20260112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher, with the main contract price approaching the 104,000 mark and then showing a high - level oscillation. The trading volume increased significantly, approaching 700,000 contracts. After the weekend, the macro - environment remained positive, with both commodities and the stock market rising across the board. On the industrial side, high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream procurement sentiment, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks [5]. - Shanghai aluminum rose first and then fell today, with a significant increase in trading volume. On Monday, the macro - environment was positive, but aluminum underperformed. This is mainly due to strong industrial constraints and technical pressure at the 2021 high, leading to intensified long - short capital games [6]. - Shanghai nickel opened higher and maintained a strong oscillation, with little change in trading volume. After the weekend, the macro - environment remained positive, and nickel prices continued their strength from last Friday. Supply disruption news from Indonesia has reversed industrial expectations. In the industry, the nickel monthly spread has weakened significantly, reflecting a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations [7]. Group 3: Summary of Industrial Dynamics Copper - High copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream procurement sentiment, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks. As of January 12, 2026, electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 185,300 tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 171.42%, indicating significantly weaker domestic terminal consumption compared to the same period last year [9]. Aluminum - In the US physical aluminum market, the "premium" (covering logistics, insurance, taxes, etc.) on top of the LME futures price has increased. The tariff cost per ton of aluminum has risen from about $1,300 in June to $1,550. This week, the aluminum premium in the US Midwest reached a record high of 96 cents per pound ($2,116 per ton), a 65% increase from June. The premium contains strong expectations of future price increases but has deviated from fundamental support. In 2023, many exporters redirected aluminum products to the European market, causing US domestic aluminum inventory to drop from 750,000 tons at the beginning of 2025 to less than 300,000 tons. If the supply chain fails to adjust in time, high aluminum prices may continue to affect downstream industries and push up inflation [10]. Nickel - SMM predicts that the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore will increase significantly in the second half of January 2026, with an expected month - on - month increase of 12.28%. The HMA in the second half of January is $16,427 per dry ton, an increase of $1,796.54 per dry ton. The HPM of different - grade nickel ores is also expected to rise [11]. Group 4: Summary of Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, and copper monthly spread [12][14][16][18][20][21]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27][29][31][33]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][37][43][39][45].