Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report: Profit-Taking at Highs Leads to Copper Price Correction, with Sustained Fundamental Support [1] - Report Date: January 12, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices first rose to a high and then corrected. As of January 9, the price closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. Due to concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches, market sentiment was high, pushing up copper prices. After copper prices reached above 105,000 yuan, the sentiment of long positions taking profits was obvious, leading to a price correction [5]. - The shortage of the copper mine has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to intensify concerns about the shortage of the copper mine [5][9]. - Currently, the inventory of COMEX copper in the United States continues to accumulate, and the expectation of tight copper supply in non-US regions continues to push up copper prices. High copper prices are putting pressure on the downstream operations in China, and domestic inventories have been accumulating for six consecutive weeks [5][9]. - With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increasing sentiment of funds taking profits, the prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals have corrected. Overall, the tight supply trend of copper concentrates is difficult to reverse. The global energy transition, combined with the incremental demand brought by AI infrastructure construction and power grid upgrades, still provides strong upward momentum for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Shanghai copper prices first rose to a high and then corrected. As of January 9, the price closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. Concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches led to high market sentiment, pushing up copper prices. After reaching above 105,000 yuan, long positions took profits, causing the price to correct [5]. 1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The copper mine is in short supply due to disruptions. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 9, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 428,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 43.39%. As of January 9, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was -$45/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to reach a historical low. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 11.38% [8][29]. - Demand: High copper prices are suppressing the industry, and the operating rate continues to be under pressure. As of January 8, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.01 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 28.54 percentage points. The New Year's Day holiday and high copper prices restricted the operating rate. In December, the operating rates of copper strips and copper rods were 68.21% and 52.74% respectively. High copper prices have severely weakened the ability of end - users to accept high - priced raw materials, and the order volume has significantly shrunk, causing the operating rate of copper strip enterprises to decline. Most brass rod producers increased production to meet annual output targets, driving a temporary increase in the industry's operating rate. In November, the operating rates of copper tubes and copper rods were 63.82% and 86.30% respectively. The operating rate of copper tubes in November decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by the slowdown in air - conditioning production scheduling and the main engine factory's production speed. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, driven by high demand from the power and energy storage sectors [8][32]. - Inventory: Domestic copper inventories continue to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventories continue to pile up. As of January 9, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.05 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24.22%. As of January 8, the inventory in the mainstream domestic regions monitored by SMM increased by 6.29% week-on-week compared to last Thursday, accumulating for six consecutive weeks, and the total inventory increased by 168,100 tons compared to the same period last year. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to continuous inventory accumulation in China. As of January 9, the LME copper inventory was 139,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.37%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.63%, and the accumulation of COMEX inventory continued to increase [8][37]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Due to concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches, market sentiment among long positions is high, continuing to push up copper prices. After copper prices reached above 105,000 yuan, the sentiment of long positions taking profits was obvious, leading to a price correction. Fundamentally, the shortage of the copper mine has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to intensify concerns about the shortage of the copper mine. Currently, the inventory of COMEX copper in the United States continues to accumulate, and the expectation of tight copper supply in non-US regions continues to push up copper prices. High copper prices are putting pressure on the downstream operations in China, and domestic inventories have been accumulating for six consecutive weeks. With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increasing sentiment of funds taking profits, the prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals have corrected. Overall, the tight supply trend of copper concentrates is difficult to reverse. The global energy transition, combined with the incremental demand brought by AI infrastructure construction and power grid upgrades, still provides strong upward momentum for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [9]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China: In December, the RatingDog Services PMI was 52, indicating continued expansion. The RatingDog Composite PMI final value was 51.3. The central bank stated that it will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In December, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.34% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month. China's CPI in December increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since February 2023, mainly driven by rising food prices. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month [13]. - United States: In December, the ISM Manufacturing PMI reached the largest contraction since 2024, with new orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month and employment declining for the 11th consecutive month. The ISM Services PMI was 54.4, the highest in more than a year, with new orders increasing significantly and demand driving employment growth. The non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, less than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [13]. 2.2 Industrial News Overview - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of the year to $12,750 per ton but said prices may decline in the second half [14]. - The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike due to a breakdown in negotiations, and the mine is almost completely shut down [14]. - The US government is considering investing in a key mineral mining project in Greenland operated by Amaroq [14]. - The Trump administration and Congress plan to revoke the mining ban in northern Minnesota imposed by the Biden administration, which will benefit the Twin Metals copper - cobalt - nickel mine project [14]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources is expected to pass the EU's anti - monopoly review [14]. 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - Shanghai copper prices reached a new high, and the spot market was冷清, with transactions falling into a discount. As spot transactions weakened, spot quotes continued to be lowered, and the market discount widened. Subsequently, as copper prices fell, downstream buyers replenished their stocks, and overall trading improved, narrowing the discount. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium widened, and the New York - London copper price spread weakened [17]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of January 9, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 206,491 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 275,814.8 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 21.43%. Both the trading volume and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased [20]. - As of January 2, the net long position of investment companies and credit institutions in LME copper was 3,078.98 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 33.06%. As of January 6, the net long position of asset management institutions in COMEX copper was 68,242 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 3.91% [20]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply - The shortage of copper concentrates persists due to disruptions in the copper mine. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 9, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 428,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 43.39%. As of January 9, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $45/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to reach a historical low. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The actual impact of smelter maintenance in December was small, and the supply of scrap - derived anode copper increased, leading to a month - on - month increase in the production of some smelters. The strong sulfuric acid price in December offset smelting losses, and smelters had little intention to cut production voluntarily [29]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of January 8, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 28.54 percentage points. The New Year's Day holiday and high copper prices restricted the operating rate. In December, the operating rates of copper strips and copper rods were 68.21% and 52.74% respectively. High copper prices have severely weakened the ability of end - users to accept high - priced raw materials, and the order volume has significantly shrunk, causing the operating rate of copper strip enterprises to decline. Most brass rod producers increased production to meet annual output targets, driving a temporary increase in the industry's operating rate. In November, the operating rates of copper tubes and copper rods were 63.82% and 86.30% respectively. The operating rate of copper tubes in November decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by the slowdown in air - conditioning production scheduling and the main engine factory's production speed. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, driven by high demand from the power and energy storage sectors [32]. 4.3 Inventory - As of January 9, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22%. As of January 8, the inventory in the mainstream domestic regions monitored by SMM increased by 6.29% week - on - week compared to last Thursday, accumulating for six consecutive weeks, and the total inventory increased by 168,100 tons compared to the same period last year. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to continuous inventory accumulation in China. As of January 9, the LME copper inventory was 139,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the accumulation of COMEX inventory continued to increase [37].
铜周报：高位止盈铜价回调，基本面支撑持续-20260112
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-01-12 08:53