粕类周报：区间震荡，关注政策变化-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the meal sector is "oscillation" [4]. Core View of the Report - The meal sector is expected to trade in a range, and investors should pay attention to policy changes. The domestic resumption of imported soybean auctions brings the expectation of improved supply in the first quarter. The meal futures market is expected to be mainly oscillatory in the near term, influenced significantly by policy news. In the short term, investors are advised to focus on the adjustment of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China - Canada trade policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply factor is bullish. As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 0.1%, lower than last year and the five - year average. In Argentina, as of January 7, the sowing progress was 88.3% with a slowdown due to waterlogging. In January, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are expected to decline rapidly. The estimated arrival volume of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year is 1.58 billion tons, but the commercial crushing volume is insufficient, with policy being a variable. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the supply of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase [4]. - Demand: For soybean meal, demand is bullish; for rapeseed meal, it is bearish. Short - term high pig inventories support feed demand, but national policies may affect long - term supply. Downstream pre - holiday stocking of soybean meal is expected to be active due to concerns about soybean shortages and customs inspection delays in the first quarter of next year. Recently, the downstream trading of soybean meal has been normal with good提货 performance, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal has been cautious [4]. - Inventory: Inventory is neutral. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure. It is expected that inventories will decline rapidly in January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased, and domestic rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [4]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is neutral [4]. - Profit: Profit is bearish. The new - crop soybean purchasing and crushing margins in China are good, and the crushing margins of Canadian rapeseed are also good [4]. - Valuation: Valuation is neutral. From the perspective of crushing margins, the futures price of soybean meal is over - valued; from the perspective of absolute price, it is under - valued [4]. - Macro and Policy: Macro and policy factors are bearish. China will auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans on January 13, and investors should pay attention to the auction results. They should also focus on the visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China next week [4]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to oscillate, and risks related to policy and weather should be monitored. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: In December, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans remained unchanged in the 2025/26 season, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [31][38]. - US Soybean: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly soybean crushing volume data are presented, and the export sales progress of US soybeans is slow [48][55][57]. - Brazilian Soybean: The planting progress chart of Brazilian soybeans is provided, and the CNF premium trend chart and import soybean futures margin of soybeans are presented [64][66]. - Canadian Rapeseed: The CFR price and import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are shown [69]. - Domestic Market: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the inventories of feed enterprises are also high. The inventory of domestic imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal is presented. The operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are shown. The trading volume and提货 volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal of oil mills are provided. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the single - protein price ratio are given. The monthly feed production volume is presented. The pig and poultry breeding profits, prices, weights, and inventory data are also provided [78][84][94]