金融工程定期报告：“天量”是否一定“天价”？

• The report primarily discusses the phenomenon of "extreme volume and extreme price" (天量天价), which refers to the potential correlation between significant trading volume peaks and market price tops. The logic is that if trading volume cannot continue to expand, a "volume-price divergence" may occur, putting pressure on bullish trends[1][9] - The report emphasizes that not all significant price turning points in the A-share market are accompanied by extreme trading volumes, indicating that "extreme volume" and "extreme price" do not always occur simultaneously. This suggests the need for additional indicators to enhance the reliability of this signal, such as tracking whether external funds are entering the market, whether fundamental expectations have changed significantly, and whether market sentiment shows signs of "irrational exuberance"[9][10] - The report highlights that the current market environment, characterized by record-breaking trading volumes (e.g., a single-day total turnover of over 3.6 trillion yuan on January 12, 2026), reflects high activity among internal funds. However, it remains uncertain whether external funds are entering the market, whether the rally is supported by fundamentals, and whether market sentiment is overheating[8][9][10]