Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-12 09:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2605 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias. The macro - environment is positive, with the National Business Work Conference from January 10th to 11th stating that the national business system in 2026 will focus on eight aspects, including optimizing the implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy and promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.05%. Terminal demand is relatively stable, and inventories continue to decline. Overall, the positive macro - atmosphere and positive market expectations support the bullish trend of hot - rolled coils. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 axis. The reference view is to go short on pullbacks and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,427,498 lots, up 10,408 lots [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 8,155 lots, down 1,248 lots [2]. - HC5 - 10 contract spread: - 19 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 139,537 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 146 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - HC main contract basis: 19 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 834 yuan/wet ton, up 14 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 16,279.94 million tons, up 418 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 43.98 million tons, down 4.62 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 645.86 million tons, up 2.03 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 140.75 million tons, up 14.14 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 79.33%, up 0.37 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 86.06%, up 0.78 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 305.51 million tons, up 1 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 78.05%, up 0.26 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 77.32 million tons, down 5 million tons [2]. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 290.81 million tons, up 2.17 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 6,987 million tons, down 213 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 948 million tons, up 20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 0.1729 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 0.1069 million vehicles [2]. - Air - conditioner production: 15.026 million units, up 0.822 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.442 million units, up 0.654 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 12.013 million units, up 0.978 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that in 2026, China's industrial economy has strong resilience, great potential, and high vitality, and will focus on four aspects: "stabilize", "expand", "innovate", and "increase" [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, in December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 14%; the cumulative annual retail sales were 23.744 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. In December, the retail sales of new - energy passenger cars were 1.337 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the cumulative annual sales were 12.809 million vehicles, an increase of 17.6% [2].