瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trades, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and off - season demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,650 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,866 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,136 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,340 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan [2] - Spreads: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 85 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; that of alumina was - 197 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 290 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan [2] - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 379,081 lots, up 190,088 lots; that of alumina were 545,795 lots, up 8,133 lots; that of cast aluminum alloy were 21,990 lots, up 342 lots [2] - Inventories: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 51,775 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 497,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventories were 143,828 tons, up 14,010 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,288 tons, down 505 tons; Shanghai aluminum SHFE warrants were 97,413 tons, up 6,501 tons [2] - Other Indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 61,512 lots, down 14,748 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.86, down 0.01; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy in SHFE were 69,285 tons, down 637 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,340 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,580 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,060 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan [2] - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 610 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 8.30 US dollars/ton, up 14.67 US dollars; the basis of alumina was - 286 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Prices: The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; that in Shandong metal scrap was 18,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - Production and Utilization Rates: The alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 85.00%, down 1.51 percentage points; the alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 26.58 million tons, down 11.40 million tons [2] - Trade Volume: China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export volume was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export volume of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import volume was 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply - related: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.90 million tons, up 0.70 million tons; the primary aluminum import volume was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 98.31%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - Demand - related: The aluminum product production was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons; the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 173.90 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2] - Real Estate: The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 21.09%, up 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.06%, up 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 33.65%, up 0.0890 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.70, up 0.0471 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [2] - The State Council executive meeting deployed a series of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination [2] - The National Commerce Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, the national business system should focus on eight aspects of work [2] - In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. It is expected that the retail sales volume of the auto market in 2026 will remain flat, and new energy vehicles will grow by about 10% [2]