瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish and volatile market outlook for the rebar industry, advising investors to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoint - On Monday, the RB2605 contract rebounded with increased positions. Despite the weakening downstream demand for rebar during the off - season, the current macro - environment is positive, and market expectations are optimistic. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the position volume is 1,726,703 lots, up 11,840 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 19,314 lots, up 9,160 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread is - 46 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 75,421 tons, down 1,212 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 146 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,436 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 834 yuan/wet ton, up 14 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 162.7994 million tons, up 4.18 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 439,800 tons, down 46,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4586 million tons, up 20,300 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.33%, up 0.37%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 86.06%, up 0.78%; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.4075 million tons, up 141,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.9104 million tons, up 28,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 41.88%, up 0.62%. The inventory at sample steel mills is 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 70.83%, up 1.04%. The monthly output of crude steel in China is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of rebar is 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index is 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is - 2.60%, down 0.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 15.90%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment is - 1.10%, down 1.00%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, 482 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan; the total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2026, China's industrial economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality, and the government will focus on four aspects: "stabilize", "expand", "innovate", and "increase" [2].