瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260112

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current national cotton inspection is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up increases, and Brazilian cotton arrives in a concentrated manner, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. However, the general market expectation of a decline in the cotton planting area in the new year supports the cotton market to some extent. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise, and the impact of macro and policies should be focused on [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price: 14,625 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price: 20,640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 170,777 lots, up 6,745 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,850 lots, up 98 lots - Cotton main - contract positions: 817,953 lots, down 31,033 lots; cotton yarn main - contract positions: 16,185 lots, down 631 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 7,768 sheets, unchanged; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 60 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,857 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,531 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tariff): 13,691 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan - Imported cotton yarn arrival price (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,021 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; imported cotton yarn arrival price (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s): 22,348 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,443 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons - Cotton import volume: 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - Imported cotton profit: 2,239 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey - cloth inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days - Cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; yarn output: 2.039 million tons, up 0.038 million tons - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, up 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 12,275,733 thousand US dollars, up 1,017,314.08 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 13.35%, down 1.46%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 13.34%, down 1.47% - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.2%, up 0.31%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.79%, up 0.09% [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial cotton inventory is increasing. As of January 9, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.573 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 284,200 tons (a 5.37% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.6841 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 192,600 tons (a 4.29% increase), and the commercial cotton in the inland area was 489,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 89,400 tons (a 22.35% increase) - According to the USDA report, in the week ending January 1, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 98,000 bales, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 154,000 bales, a 9% increase from the previous week and an 18% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The U.S. cotton export contract volume continued to decline [2]