Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-12 09:02Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with attention on the MA10 support level in the range of 2.38 - 2.45 [3]. - On the macro - front, the US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the annual increase was the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero [3]. - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore purchases has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profit of domestic smelters has shrunk, so production is expected to continue to be restricted [3]. - The export window may close again as the LME zinc price has corrected recently and the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while there are some bright spots in the automotive and other sectors due to policy support [3]. - The downstream market mainly makes purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium is high and stable, and domestic inventories have increased significantly. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the price has risen with an increase in positions, showing a strong bullish sentiment and resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,125 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 155 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts is - 50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,153.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 222,360 lots, a month - on - month increase of 4,307 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,583 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 427 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged from the previous period [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 107,450 tons, a day - on - day decrease of 550 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,210 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 410 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 43.99 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,070 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 113,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 20.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 20.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 1.35%. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the annual increase was the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero [3]. - China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month turn to a 0.2% increase. PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The year - on - year increase in CPI to 0.8% was the highest since March 2023, mainly driven by the expansion of food price increases, with the fresh vegetable price increase at 18.2%. The month - on - month turn from a decrease to an increase in CPI was mainly affected by the price increase of industrial consumer goods excluding energy. The prices of communication tools, mother - and - baby products, etc. all increased, and the gold jewelry price increased by 5.6%. PPI decreased year - on - year for the 39th consecutive month, and the month - on - month increase expanded. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices pulled up the prices of related domestic industries [3].