瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects Shanghai tin to operate strongly in the short - term, with attention on the MA5 support and testing the upper 390,000 - yuan mark. The macro - situation involves the US non - farm payrolls in December being lower than expected, leading to market expectations of about 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and zero probability of a January cut. In China, the December CPI hit a 34 - month high. Fundamentally, the domestic tin ore import supply is tight, processing fees are low, and refined tin production is expected to be limited. The demand side shows that downstream procurement is active, and inventory decline is better than expected [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 376,920 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24,380 yuan/ton. The closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is - 710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 250 yuan/ton. LME 3 - month tin is at 45,560 US dollars/ton, up 1,810 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 50,635 lots, an increase of 9,898 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 786 lots, an increase of 1,693 lots. LME tin total inventory is 5,415 tons, up 10 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 6,333 tons, a decrease of 96 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 368,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 370,680 yuan/ton, up 19,980 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 2,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,200 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 30 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 356,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton, and its processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 360,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton, and its processing fee is 8,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 234,890 yuan/ton, up 11,790 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, an increase of 0.1447 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, with the annual increase being the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects about 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and zero probability of a January cut. China's December CPI year - on - year increase hit a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The year - on - year increase in CPI was mainly driven by food prices, and the month - on - month increase was due to non - energy industrial consumer goods. PPI decreased year - on - year for the 39th consecutive month, and the month - on - month increase expanded [3]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - No news today [3]