美联储独立性受损风险提升，金银大幅拉涨

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12, gold and silver prices rose significantly, with Shanghai gold up 2.57% and Shanghai silver up 14.42%. London gold spot exceeded $4,600 per ounce, and London silver spot exceeded $84 per ounce [4]. - The expectation of the Fed's impaired independence dominated the market. The threat of a subpoena to Powell and the uncertainty of the new Fed chairman nominee increased concerns, driving up precious metal prices [5]. - The unannounced result of the 232 investigation on critical minerals and the "Monroe Doctrine" expectation led to the overall strength of the metal sector. The spot shortage logic of silver may persist [6]. - Looking ahead, gold and silver are expected to maintain an overall upward - trending oscillation, with silver's high - volatility state likely to continue in the short term. London gold may reach $4,900 - $5,000 per ounce, and silver may challenge new highs of $90 - $100 per ounce [6]. 3. Summary by Related Factors Fed - related Factors - The Fed chairman is about to change, and the new nominee has not been disclosed. Trump said he had made a decision but refused to reveal it. As of January 12, Kevin Warsh had a 41% chance of being elected, Kevin Hassett 40%, and Christopher Waller 9% [5]. - The Justice Department's subpoena threat to Powell increased market concerns about the Fed's impaired independence, driving up precious metal prices despite the delayed expected interest - rate cut time shown by FED NATOH [5]. Geopolitical and Trade - related Factors - On January 3, the US attacked Venezuela and made remarks about Greenland, increasing the expectation of geopolitical conflicts and the "Monroe Doctrine" - style US foreign policy. This led to resource security concerns and the overall strength of the metal sector [6]. - The result of the US 232 investigation on critical minerals has not been announced, and the hoarding demand may keep squeezing the floating inventory, making the silver spot shortage logic likely to repeat [6]. Market Performance and Outlook - After the negative impact of the Bloomberg Commodity Index weight adjustment last week, gold and silver rebounded. Driven by multiple factors, they are expected to remain strong in the short term [6].