有色评论：光伏出口取消退税的政策点评

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will stimulate the demand for polysilicon in the short term and promote the industry to eliminate backward production capacity and achieve supply - demand re - balance in the medium and long term, which is in line with the current policy orientation of "anti - involution" [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Policy Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly announced that the VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products would be fully cancelled from April 1, 2026. In November 2024, the export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products was lowered from 13% to 9% [1] - The reason for the policy is the "volume increase and price decrease" situation in the export market caused by vicious price competition. In 2024, the export volume of photovoltaic cells increased by 41.5% year - on - year, but the export value decreased by 33.76%; the export volume of components increased by 9.9%, and the export value decreased by 27.89%. Some enterprises converted the tax rebate into a price reduction for overseas customers, leading to profit losses and increasing the risk of international trade frictions [1] Short - term Impact - There will be a "rush to export" market in the about 3 - month window period before the policy is officially implemented on April 1. Enterprises will increase production and shipments to avoid future cost increases, which will boost the demand for upstream polysilicon in the short term. Some photovoltaic enterprises have stated that they will maintain continuous production during the Spring Festival [1] Medium - and Long - term Impact - The full cancellation of export tax rebates will increase the export threshold of photovoltaic products from the cost side, help curb vicious competition relying on price subsidies, accelerate the clearance of excess production capacity in the industry's supply side, and promote the industry to shift from price - based competition to high - quality development based on technology and quality [2] - In January 2026, the regulatory level signaled that the industry's "anti - involution" would focus on market - based and legalized paths, and the market expected a change in the previous approach of industry self - regulation and negotiation [2] Photovoltaic Product List - The list includes "Photovoltaic cells not installed in components or assembled into blocks" with the commodity code 85414200 and "Photovoltaic cells installed in components or assembled into blocks" with the commodity code 85414300 [3]