整车主线周报：12月新能源批发符合预期，看好26年景气度向上-20260112

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle sector, anticipating a recovery in demand in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of subsidy policies. Key players include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD, focusing on high-end electric vehicles and established export leaders [23][24]. - The heavy truck segment is projected to see a slight increase in domestic sales in 2026, with expectations of 800,000 to 850,000 units sold, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth. Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [28]. - The bus market is expected to benefit from the continuation of subsidy policies, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold in 2026, representing a 5% increase year-on-year. Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [27]. - The motorcycle sector is forecasted to grow by 14% in total sales in 2026, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles. Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report emphasizes a recovery in the passenger vehicle market in Q1 2026, driven by subsidy policies. Key stocks to watch include Jianghuai Automobile and Geely, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles [23][24]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, heavy truck wholesale sales reached 1.14 million units, a 26% increase year-on-year. The report forecasts 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, with a 3% growth expectation. Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [28]. Buses - The bus market is projected to see a slight increase in sales due to favorable policies, with an expected 40,000 units sold in 2026. Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [27]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to grow by 14% in 2026, with large-displacement motorcycles seeing a 31% increase. Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [24].