Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-12 09:36Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the recovery of some previously overhauled plants and no planned shutdowns in the short term, despite possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with a lukewarm trading atmosphere, and downstream buyers are reluctant to accept high - priced goods, preferring to buy as needed. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates little. Although the inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly and the order collection of enterprises has improved significantly with rising prices, the de - stocking amplitude is limited due to the pre - increased inventory. The downstream chasing trend may slow down with the recent price increase, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1783 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 20 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 236,875 lots, up 4,468 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,138 lots, down 1,116 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,200 pieces, up 350 pieces [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Anhui are 1750 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu it is 1760 yuan/ton with no change; in Shandong it is 1750 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The FOB Baltic price is 367.5 dollars/ton, up 12.5 dollars; the FOB China main port price is 402.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons week - on - week, a decline of 18.60%. Enterprise inventory is 1.0222 billion tons, up 3,000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 0.29%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, up 0.30 million tons week - on - week, a 0.29% increase, with small fluctuations and varying local inventory changes. As of January 8, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons week - on - week, a 18.60% decline, due to increased departure of port goods and slow factory - to - port rhythm. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3716 million tons, up 12,500 tons, a 0.92% increase, driven by the recovery of some previously overhauled plants [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]