纸浆周报-20260112

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping - Analyst Qualification Number: F3002581 - Transaction Consultation License Number: Z0012806 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The current logic is that the trading sentiment in the spot market has weakened. With the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market is facing pressure from hedging positions. - On the basis of stable fundamentals, the strong price support from the forward overseas market still provides support for domestic pulp spot and forward prices, limiting the downside space of the futures market. - In the long - term, the overseas shipments in January are still decreasing, and there is no significant pressure on short - term arrivals. After the simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices, the spot trading has slightly weakened. As the futures price rises and reaches the risk - free hedging position for some European and Canadian softwood pulp again, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts, upward pressure may emerge. Although the fundamentals have improved, there are no actual factors to drive up the price. - Pulp sentiment remains for now, and it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. However, if contradictions in the real - world market gradually accumulate (such as the port inventory turning to accumulation, new warehouse receipts being registered successively, and spot trading weakening) or the macro - sentiment weakens, pulp may shift to a weakly volatile trend. - Strategy recommendation: The commodity sector is improving, and there are still risks in the energy and chemical market due to international situations and macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see during the day. If the spot price is stable and one holds deliverable forward goods at a suitable cost, one can choose to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract at high prices to meet the risk - free hedging needs at high levels [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained basically stable this week. The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased by 150 yuan/ton, but the spot price was stable, and the market had sufficient spot supply. - Import: In November 2025, China's pulp imports were 324.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The cumulative annual imports were 3292.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The shipments of softwood and hardwood pulp from pulp - producing countries to China rebounded in November, and it is estimated that the domestic arrivals in January will increase month - on - month [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production was stable, with no obvious demand - side drivers. The maintenance equipment for coated paper has resumed normal production, and the production of coated paper has increased slightly. - Inventory: As the spot price became firmer and the downstream replenishment came to an end with reduced willingness, the port inventory gradually shifted to accumulation. Under the high price of far - month contracts, there were hedging opportunities for some low - priced European softwood pulp, and the warehouse receipts in the contracts have increased successively. The downstream finished - product inventory is in a state of shock adjustment [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quotation increased, the spot price of hardwood pulp remained firm with relatively tight market liquidity, and the futures price was also firm. The price of softwood pulp was firm, but the buying demand was weak, and the demand was average. After the large - scale replenishment by major manufacturers ended, the spot trading weakened slightly, but the price remained relatively firm. The trading sentiment in the spot market weakened, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market was facing pressure from hedging positions. The finished - product price remained stable, and there were no price increase notices. - Spread: The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to shrink to a relatively low level, which may drive the digestion of old softwood pulp. The far - month futures price continued to strengthen, and the spread shrank. The futures price corrected, the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [11]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of domestic pulp remained stable, and the cost of imported pulp increased due to the increase in overseas prices. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp is expected to rise slightly. The profit of imported pulp is expected to be further compressed due to the increase in overseas prices. The raw material cost of paper continued to rise. Although the finished - product price also increased, the profit was still affected [13]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2025 to January 2026, including data on imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, factory inventory, apparent demand, and inventory (including port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and total inventory) [19]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. - Demand and Inventory: The apparent demand and inventory in Europe are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Analyzes various aspects of supply, including pulp imports, softwood pulp imports, hardwood pulp imports, softwood pulp imports by country, imports of chemimechanical pulp and unbleached pulp, and imports of softwood and hardwood chips, and provides historical data from 2022 - 2025 [33][37][40]. - Demand: Analyzes pulp apparent demand and downstream finished - product paper (including toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard), and provides information on the planned production capacity of some paper mills [73][88]. - Inventory: Analyzes pulp total inventory, including the sum of port inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [117]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Analyzes the import cost and profit of pulp and the production cost and profit of domestic pulp [125][128]. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Analyzes pulp overseas quotations, spot price seasonality, spot spread seasonality, basis, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of the SP main contract [132][137][141]