金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost side, while the terminal demand is expected to weaken before the end of January [3] - The short - term rebound height of ethylene glycol price is limited [4] 3. Summary by Commodity PTA - Main Contract: On January 12, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 1.02%, and the basis weakened to - 61 yuan/ton [2] - Fundamentals: The market price in East China was 5095 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil rose to around $63/barrel over the weekend. PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 77.41%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.60 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous week [3] - Main Force Movements: Short - side main forces increased positions [3] - Trend Expectation: The PTA processing fee is at a high level, but there is no plan to further increase the load of PTA devices. Terminal weaving inventory is accumulating. Considering the possible early holiday of polyester factories before the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is expected to weaken before the end of January. The market is generally bullish on upstream PX, and the PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Main Contract: On January 12, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 rose 0.81%, and the basis strengthened to - 143 yuan/ton [4] - Fundamentals: The market price in East China was 3726 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of crude oil and coal rebounded. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 73.7 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons compared to the previous period [4] - Main Force Movements: There is a divergence between long - side and short - side main forces [4] - Trend Expectation: The arrivals of ethylene glycol are still relatively high recently, and the inventory is seasonally accumulating. Although there are maintenance plans for multiple overseas devices in the future, the downstream polyester start - up is expected to decline. The short - term rebound height of ethylene glycol price is limited [4]