地缘扰动，甲醇坚挺

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The raw coal market shows stable coal mine开工率, with the开工率 in E'erduosi and Yulin recovering. The daily coal output in these two regions is around 4.2 million tons, and the pithead price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol开工率 is high and stable, with sufficient supply. The US dollar price has risen slightly, most Iranian plants are shut down due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian开工率 has decreased, and the overall overseas开工率 is at a low level. The import volume in January is expected to be around 1.2 million tons. The MTO装置开工率 has recovered, and the port inventory has been decreasing. Considering the unstable Middle East situation and strong support sentiment, methanol is expected to remain strong in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary of Chapter 1 (Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy) - Market Analysis: Coal mine开工率 is stable, coal price rebounds, coal - to - methanol profit is stable, and domestic supply is sufficient. Overseas, Iranian plants are mostly shut down, and non - Iranian supply decreases. The MTO装置开工率 is stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. The domestic MTO has a strong shutdown expectation, and the unstable Middle East situation supports methanol prices [5] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, gradually build long positions on 05 contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [5] Group 4: Summary of Chapter 2 (Weekly Data Tracking) - Supply - Domestic: As of January 8, the domestic methanol overall装置开工负荷 is 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average开工负荷 is 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [6] - Supply - International: From January 3 - 9, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) output is 867,899 tons, up 26,800 tons from last week, and the装置产能利用率 is 59.49%, up 1.84% from last week [6] - Supply - Import: From January 1 - 7, 2026, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume is 373,300 tons [6] - Demand - MTO: As of January 8, the average weekly产能利用率 of MTO装置 in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 66.86%, down 2.19 percentage points from last week. The national olefin装置开工率 is 89.28%, with a slight increase in the average weekly开工率 after the adjustment of multiple MTO enterprises in East China and the increase of inland enterprises' loads [6] - Demand - Traditional: The dimethyl ether产能利用率 is 2.96%, down 17.78% month - on - month; the acetic acid产能利用率 is 76.99%, and the formaldehyde开工率 is 34.07%, all showing a decline [6] - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly order volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region (excluding long - term contracts) is 94,200 tons, up 15,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 20.00% [6] - Inventory - Enterprise: The production enterprise inventory is 447,700 tons, up 25,100 tons from the previous period, and the sample enterprise order backlog is 237,500 tons, up 29,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16% [6] - Inventory - Port: As of January 7, 2026, the total Chinese methanol port inventory is 1.5372 million tons, up 4,080 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has increased by 57,200 tons, and that in South China has decreased by 16,400 tons [6] - Valuation: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 370 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 110 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [6] - Spot Price: The price in Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton (- 30), and the price in the northern line is 1,840 yuan/ton (-) [9]