华宝期货有色金属周报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Macro remains strong, with the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosting risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthening demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - Zinc: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - Tin: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - Lithium carbonate: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Weekly Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market No relevant content provided. 02. Forecast of This Week's Non - ferrous Metals Market - Aluminum - Logic: Last week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the slowdown in US non - farm employment growth in December exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate declined, boosting confidence in the economy avoiding recession. Fundamentally, domestic bauxite is in short supply in the north, and alumina plants' willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is weak due to the continuous decline in alumina prices. The domestic bauxite price is expected to decline further. The import bauxite market has a divergence in the intended prices of buyers and sellers, with overall sluggish transactions. However, the long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas supports future supply. Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, showing a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression", and high aluminum prices are the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and industry operating rate recovery [11]. - Viewpoint: Macro remains strong, and the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosts risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthens demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated at high levels. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat week - on - week, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 6.25 US dollars per dry ton. In January, the window for importing zinc concentrates in China remained open, and smelters' enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc concentrates decreased. The decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees has slowed down, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, and it will take time for processing fees to rebound. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 49.90%. In terms of inventory, after the New Year's Day holiday, the center of zinc prices shifted significantly upward, and die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was low, resulting in a decrease in raw material inventories and an obvious accumulation of finished product inventories. Terminal orders weakened, and new orders from enterprises were mostly concentrated on rigid - demand purchases. In addition, the price difference between copper and aluminum increased significantly, the zinc - aluminum price difference narrowed, and the zinc - copper price difference widened, leading to an increase in processing fees by die - casting zinc alloy enterprises [13]. - Viewpoint: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - Tin - Logic: In November, the shortage of raw materials eased, with an increase in the import volume of tin concentrates from Myanmar and Congo (Kinshasa). The operating rate of domestic smelting enterprises remained at the current level, with limited probability of further increase. The downstream semiconductor market is stable, but industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances are gradually entering the off - season. Recently, the sharp increase in tin prices is mainly due to the significant increase in the risk appetite of the metal market led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the price volatility of tin has increased significantly [14]. - Viewpoint: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - Lithium Carbonate - Logic: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract fluctuated significantly in the range, with the main contract rising 17.96% week - on - week to 143,420 yuan per ton. The spot price also increased. On the supply side, raw material prices rose sharply, the operating rate decreased slightly but production increased slightly, and there were significant differences in production processes. On the demand side, the production of cathode materials and power cells decreased slightly, but inventories were depleted, and the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles supported demand. In terms of inventory, the total inventory increased slightly, with significant differences in different links. In terms of cost and profit, the whole industry chain turned profitable, and the profit elasticity of lithium mica was high. Macroeconomic policies formed synergistic benefits, and short - term regulatory tightening measures were taken [15]. - Viewpoint: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 620 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 550 yuan per ton, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 67.61 US dollars per ton in the week of January 9, down 0.74 US dollars week - on - week and 40.65 US dollars year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 4.0423 million tons in the week of January 9, down 483,800 tons week - on - week and 186,500 tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 5.8804 million tons, up 1.1296 million tons week - on - week and 2.5927 million tons year - on - year [25]. - Alumina - Price, Cost, and Profit: The domestic price in Henan was 2,670 yuan per ton in the week of January 12, down 20 yuan week - on - week and 2,610 yuan year - on - year; the full cost was 2,714.3 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 59.6 yuan week - on - week and 734 yuan year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 171.67 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 27.14 yuan week - on - week and down 2,036.16 yuan year - on - year [28]. - Electrolytic Aluminum - Total Cost: The total cost was 16,197.37 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 59.19 yuan week - on - week and down 5,054.46 yuan year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was 90 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 150 yuan week - on - week and 30 yuan year - on - year [30]. - Downstream Processing of Electrolytic Aluminum - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables was 59.6 in the week of January 8, up 2 week - on - week and down 0.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.7, up 1.4 week - on - week and down 3.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips was 65, up 2 week - on - week and down 1.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 48.8, down 1.9 week - on - week and up 13.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, down 0.2 week - on - week and up 3.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58, down 2 week - on - week and up 4.9 year - on - year [36][37]. - Inventory - Bonded - area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 41,000 tons in the week of January 8, up 2,700 tons week - on - week and down 3,800 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 55,400 tons, up 1,200 tons week - on - week and 1,400 tons year - on - year [42]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory was 730,000 tons in the week of January 12, up 46,000 tons week - on - week and 271,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - Weekly Outbound Volume of Aluminum Ingots in Major Consumption Areas: The weekly outbound volume was 66,100 tons in the week of January 5, down 33,500 tons week - on - week and 59,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - SHFE Inventory: The SHFE inventory was 143,828 tons in the week of January 9, up 14,010 tons week - on - week and down 34,646 tons year - on - year [43]. - LME Inventory: The LME inventory was 497,825 tons in the week of January 8, down 11,425 tons week - on - week and 121,450 tons year - on - year [43]. - Spot and Basis - Spot: SMM A00 aluminum [46]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was - 425 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 65 yuan week - on - week and down 210 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 300 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan week - on - week and down 25 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 390 yuan per ton, up 130 yuan week - on - week and down 85 yuan year - on - year [49]. - Monthly Spread of SHFE Aluminum - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 125 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 100 yuan week - on - week and 130 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was 35 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week and 150 yuan year - on - year [50]. Zinc - Zinc Concentrate - Price and Processing Fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 20,755 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 12, up 135 yuan week - on - week and 657 yuan year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,500 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 450 yuan year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 37.5 US dollars per dry ton, down 6.25 US dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 7,668 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, up 598 yuan week - on - week and 42 yuan year - on - year; the import profit and loss was 398.7 yuan per ton, up 419.85 yuan week - on - week and 142 yuan year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 110,000 physical tons in the week of January 9, down 20,000 tons week - on - week and up 10,000 tons year - on - year [61]. - Refined Zinc Inventory - Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 118,300 tons in the week of January 12, up 3,500 tons week - on - week and 57,300 tons year - on - year [65]. - Bonded - area Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The bonded - area inventory was 3,300 tons in the week of January 8, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 2,200 tons year - on - year [65]. - SHFE Refined Zinc Inventory: The SHFE refined zinc inventory was 73,852 tons in the week of January 9, up 4,059 tons week - on - week and 52,812 tons year - on - year [65]. - LME Zinc Inventory: The LME zinc inventory was 107,450 tons in the week of January 8, up 1,125 tons week - on - week and down 109,450 tons year - on - year [65]. - Galvanized - Production: The production was 313,970 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,510 tons week - on - week and 4,520 tons year - on - year [69]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate was 54.39 in the week of January 8, up 1.41 week - on - week and 0.67 year - on - year [69]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory was 12,480 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,485 tons week - on - week and 1,335 tons year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 373,000 tons, up 10,100 tons week - on - week and down 20,300 tons year - on - year [69]. - Basis of Zinc: SMM 0 Zinc Ingot - Spot: SMM 0 zinc ingot [70]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was 110 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 190 yuan week - on - week and down 325 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was 60 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan week - on - week and down 565 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 20 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week and 720 yuan year - on - year [73]. - Monthly Spread of SHFE Zinc - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 50 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 175 yuan week - on - week and 240 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 130 yuan per ton, down 195 yuan week - on - week and 395 yuan year - on - year [74]. Tin - Refined Tin - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.3362 million tons in the week of January 9, down 0.003 million tons week - on - week and up 0.0337 million tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 69.38% in the week of January 9, down 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and up 6.96 percentage points year - on - year [83]. - Tin Ingot Inventory - SHFE Tin Ingot Inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 6,935 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,001 tons week - on - week and up 582 tons year - on - year [86]. - Social Inventory of Tin Ingots in China by Region: The social inventory of tin ingots in China by region was 7,478 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,042 tons week -