玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强-20260112

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term shock is on the strong side [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of glass is concentrated and shrinks, improving the phased supply - demand structure. Coupled with the positive macro - expectations, the price may maintain a short - term shock and run strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3) Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The glass main contract opened high and went low, with intraday fluctuations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, showing a short - term signal of continued shock on the strong side. The intraday pressure is near the 40/60 weekly moving averages, and the support is near the 40 daily moving averages. The trading volume decreased by 151,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 285 lots. The intraday high was 1149, the low was 1119, and the closing price was 1143, down 1 yuan/ton (0.09% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: In the North China region, market sentiment declined, and the price center of some specifications slightly moved down; in the East China market, the center moved up, but the trading slowed down; in the Central China market, the price remained stable, and the shipping sentiment weakened compared with last week; in the South China market, individual prices were raised, with rigid demand purchases and relatively good shipping [1] - Basis: The North China spot price is 1020, and the basis is - 123 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared with the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03%. The 1000 - ton/day design capacity of the Chenzhou No. 1 line of Hunan Qibin Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to be shut down for cold - repair today, and the 520 - ton/day design capacity of Yunnan Diankai Energy - Saving Technology Co., Ltd. stopped feeding last night, with further contraction in output expected [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million weight boxes (2.37% month - on - month decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared with the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend. Most regions are driven by sales policies, with improved market sentiment and favorable boosts from capacity reduction. The enterprise inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches and decreases, and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Currently, engineering orders are gradually winding up, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are still mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke as fuel are also in a loss state, accelerating the capacity clearance of some enterprises. Six glass production lines were shut down for cold - repair before New Year's Day, and three more production lines were cold - repaired last week, further shrinking the supply. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability both continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and the real - estate demand has not improved [4]