焦炭日报：短期延续反弹-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term rebound in the coke market, with a "low - buying" approach [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policies. The overall supply - demand is weak, but the short - term demand is boosted due to the seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills and the increase in hot metal production. Considering factors like interest - rate cut expectations and production - cut news, the coke is expected to continue its short - term rebound [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis 3.1.1 Coke Inventory - As of January 9, the inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 6.04% month - on - month to 86.07 million tons, the inventory of steel mills increased by 0.27% to 645.73 million tons, the port inventory rose to 249.1 million tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 2.22 million tons to 980.9 million tons, reaching a 3 - month high with a year - on - year decline of over 1% [1] 3.1.2 Profit - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 45 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 30 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 17 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 86 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 9 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Downstream Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.37% to 79.31%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.78% to 86.04%, the steel mill profitability decreased by 0.44% to 37.66%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to increase by 2.07 million tons to 229.5 million tons, reaching a one - month high, a year - on - year increase of 5.13 million tons or 2.29% [1] 3.1.4 Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of coal mines continued to increase slightly, the port inventory increased by 551.96 million tons, the coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises increased to 1071.68 million tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills decreased by 797.73 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2716.37 million tons, reaching a 9 - month high with a year - on - year decline of over 15% [2] 3.1.5 News - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration ordered Dengfeng Xingyu Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for rectification. The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand. The National Commerce Work Conference announced the optimization of the policy for trading in old consumer goods for new ones in 2026 [2] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures Market - The 05 coke contract opened at 1760.5, closed at 1770, with an intraday low of 1745. It showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation, added 922 lots, and is expected to continue its short - term rebound. Attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure near the previous high [3][6] 3.2.2 Spot Market - On the 8th, the port coke spot market was stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average, with the price of quasi - first - grade coke at 1480 yuan/ton and first - grade coke at 1580 yuan/ton [4]