热卷日报：震荡偏强-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is cautiously bullish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, offering strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year-on-year figure remains strong. It's normal for demand to dip slightly in the off-season. The warming sentiment for winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. In terms of cost, the strength of coking coal and coke, along with the sharp rise in iron ore prices, provide strong cost support. Despite the relatively high total inventory exerting some pressure, the hot-rolled coil market first saw a significant upward breakthrough, followed by two days of adjustment, then stabilized and strengthened near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - Futures Price: On Monday, the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased its open interest by 10,408 lots and had a trading volume of 408,729 lots, which was a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,289 yuan, and the high was 3,320 yuan. It showed a bullish trend with increased open interest during the day, standing above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It closed at 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.55% [1]. - Spot Price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -21 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2]. 基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it rose by 16,200 tons. Production has been rising for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mills' hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance. The subsequent upward momentum needs to be monitored [3]. - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand declined slightly, but year-on-year, it rose by 72,500 tons, indicating that demand still has resilience [3]. - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons on a weekly basis (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts pressure on prices [3]. - Policy: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition has been listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. 市场驱动因素分析 (Market Driving Factor Analysis) - Bullish Factors: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5]. - Bearish Factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5].