国内外天然橡胶期货市场定价优势比较研究

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing advantages of domestic and foreign natural rubber futures vary significantly. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) takes the lead globally with its consumption - end dominance, efficient mechanism, and global leadership. The Singapore Exchange (SGX) solidifies its regional pricing core with production - sales connection, cross - border adaptation, and regional radiation. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) has its pricing advantage continuously weakened and has become a follower due to the lack of industrial support and mechanism defects [5][40]. - The mismatch in the global supply - demand pattern is the fundamental premise for the differentiation of advantages. The adaptability of delivery systems is the core support, the market positioning and investor structure are important influencing factors, and opening - up is external empowerment [5][40]. - The SHFE has achieved the global pricing core status. In the future, there is room for improvement in aspects such as delivery target adaptation, international participation, and cross - border transmission. The global authority of the "Shanghai Price" needs further strengthening. With the deepening of the "Belt and Road" rubber industry cooperation, the "futures + spot" linkage pricing model between China and Southeast Asian major producing countries can be further studied to help build a natural rubber pricing system of "Chinese pricing, globally recognized" [5][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices oscillated and rebounded, and the basis widened [1]. - Futures prices rose, and the monthly spread turned into a premium [1]. 3.2 Rubber Market Supply and Demand - The output of rubber - producing countries steadily recovered, increasing supply pressure [5]. - Tire operating rates slightly rebounded [5]. - Automobile market sales improved significantly [5]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone also rose [5]. 3.3 Research Background and Significance - Natural rubber is a key industrial raw material. The global production exceeds 14 million tons annually, with a supply - demand pattern of "major production in Southeast Asia, major consumption in East Asia". The mismatch in supply and demand makes the pricing power of the futures market a focus of competition among countries [11]. - The core of the pricing advantage of natural rubber futures includes three aspects: pricing foundation advantage, pricing mechanism advantage, and pricing influence [11]. - The global natural rubber futures market has three core platforms: TOCOM, SHFE, and SGX. In May 2025, the Osaka Exchange listed the "Shanghai Natural Rubber Futures" based on the SHFE's delivery settlement price, marking the official output of the "Chinese Price" overseas [12]. 3.4 Overview of the Operation Foundation of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures Markets - Contract Design and Delivery Rules: The SHFE uses domestic full - latex and imported RSS3 as delivery targets, with RMB pricing and physical delivery. TOCOM uses RSS3, with yen pricing and cash delivery. SGX uses TSR20, with US dollar pricing and physical delivery covering Southeast Asian ports [25]. - Industrial Relying and Market Positioning: China is the largest consumer of natural rubber. The SHFE serves the domestic real economy and leads global pricing. Japan focuses on high - end rubber product exports, and TOCOM is for international speculation and hedging. Singapore has no natural rubber production, and SGX acts as a bridge between production and consumption areas [26]. - Investor Structure and Trading Activity: The SHFE has domestic industrial and speculative customers. TOCOM has overseas speculative institutions and Japanese financial institutions. SGX has Southeast Asian traders and global institutions [27]. 3.5 Core Comparison of Pricing Advantages of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures Markets - Pricing Foundation Support: The SHFE has an absolute advantage in the consumer end. China's 45% global consumption share forms a strong pricing foundation. SGX has a hub support advantage in connecting production and sales. TOCOM's traditional advantage is weakening due to the shrinking consumption scale in Japan [30]. - Pricing Mechanism Efficiency: The SHFE has an efficient pricing mechanism with physical delivery. SGX has a cross - border adaptable pricing mechanism. TOCOM has insufficient pricing efficiency due to cash delivery and speculative capital dominance [32]. - Pricing Influence: The SHFE has a global leading pricing influence. SGX has a regional radiation pricing influence. TOCOM's traditional influence is shrinking and has become a follower [33]. 3.6 Analysis of the Causes of the Differences in Pricing Advantages of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures - The mismatch in the global natural rubber industrial supply - demand pattern is the fundamental premise. The SHFE has pricing power due to consumption - end dominance, SGX has supply - side information advantage, and TOCOM's traditional advantage weakens [36]. - The adaptability of delivery systems and contract design is the core support. The SHFE's physical delivery anchors the real economy, SGX's delivery targets fit global trade, and TOCOM's cash delivery leads to the weakening of pricing advantage [37]. - The synergy of market positioning and investor structure is an important influencing factor. The SHFE's positioning and investor structure ensure price alignment with the real economy, SGX's price reflects both production and consumption, and TOCOM's price deviates from supply and demand [37]. - The degree of opening - up and international layout affect pricing influence. The SHFE and SGX enhance their influence through opening - up, while TOCOM's influence is limited [38]. 3.7 Conclusion - The pricing advantages of the three exchanges vary significantly, with the SHFE leading globally, SGX being the regional core, and TOCOM becoming a follower [40]. - The causes of the differences include supply - demand mismatch, delivery system adaptability, market positioning and investor structure, and opening - up [40]. - The SHFE has the global pricing core status, and there is room for improvement in the future. The "Belt and Road" cooperation can help build a new pricing system [40].