生猪期货：底部震荡整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the live hog spot market showed "oscillatory recovery and partial strength", while the futures market continued the pattern of "near - term weakness and long - term strength". The long - short game focused on the slaughter rhythm and Spring Festival stocking [1]. - On the supply side, large - scale pig enterprises plan to slaughter about 14.15 million pigs in January, a nearly 3% decrease from the previous month. The big - weight pig sources are still abundant, the entry of secondary fattening has slowed down, and the slaughter weight has declined from the high level [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal consumption before the festival is weak, the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate has limited recovery, the Spring Festival stocking has gradually started but at a slow pace, and the support is insufficient [1]. - Support factors include the reduction of supply and price support by the breeding end, the reduction of the group's slaughter plan, the entry of secondary fattening, the consumption support in the north, and the recovery of the pig - grain ratio to near the break - even line. Suppression factors include the ebb of curing demand in the south, the difficulty in digesting big - weight pig sources, the overall sufficient market supply, and the weakening of terminal consumption after New Year's Day [1]. - In the short term, the operating range of the main live hog contract 2603 is 11,700 - 11,900 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The live hog spot market showed "oscillatory recovery and partial strength" last week, and the futures market continued the "near - term weakness and long - term strength" pattern. The long - short game focused on the slaughter rhythm and Spring Festival stocking [1]. - Supply side: Large - scale pig enterprises plan to slaughter about 14.15 million pigs in January, a nearly 3% decrease from the previous month. Big - weight pig sources are still abundant, the entry of secondary fattening has slowed down, and the slaughter weight has declined from the high level [1]. - Demand side: Terminal consumption before the festival is weak, the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate has limited recovery, the Spring Festival stocking has gradually started but at a slow pace, and the support is insufficient [1]. - Support factors: Reduction of supply and price support by the breeding end, reduction of the group's slaughter plan, entry of secondary fattening, consumption support in the north, and recovery of the pig - grain ratio to near the break - even line [1]. - Suppression factors: Ebb of curing demand in the south, difficulty in digesting big - weight pig sources, overall sufficient market supply, and weakening of terminal consumption after New Year's Day [1]. - Short - term operating range of the main contract 2603: 11,700 - 11,900 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch: Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [1]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Piglet price: 253.33 yuan/head, up 21.66 yuan from the previous week [2]. - Weekly average slaughter weight: 123.32 kg, down 0.03 kg from the previous week [2]. - Profit from purchasing piglets for fattening: - 74.89 yuan/head, up 2.81 yuan from the previous week [2]. - Profit from self - breeding and self - fattening: 59.26 yuan/head, down 3.14 yuan from the previous week [2]. - Slaughtering operating rate: 35.37%, down 0.34 percentage points from the previous week [2].