乐观氛围延续，煤焦偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Coke: As of the week ending January 9, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.009 million tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 downstream steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0207 million tons. This week, downstream steel mills gradually resumed production, but the resumption speed was slow, and the improvement in the coke fundamentals was limited. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply-side expectations of upstream coking coal. Overall, the fundamentals of coke itself are still relatively weak. However, after entering the new year, the upward drivers of economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, driving the coke futures to rebound from the low level [5][31]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending January 9, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 0.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.044 million tons, and 0.069 million tons lower than the same period last year. In terms of demand, as of the week ending January 9, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.009 million tons. Overall, after the New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short-term fundamentals are difficult to show obvious improvement, but the positive drivers such as economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production reduction during the Spring Festival are gradually emerging, driving the coking coal futures to rebound from the low level [5][31]. Summary by Directory Industry News - In December 2025, 472 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start-up investment in December were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively. In 2025, the main development indicators of transportation increased steadily, and it is expected to complete over 3.6 trillion yuan in transportation fixed asset investment. On December 31, Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the NDRC recently approved or approved transportation facilities such as the new Guangzhou Airport and the new Zhanjiang-Haikou cross-sea ferry and related line projects, water conservancy facilities such as the water resource allocation project in the Liaodong Peninsula of Liaoning Province, energy facilities such as the Zhejiang UHV AC ring network project, and major scientific research platforms such as the Huairou and Yazhouwan laboratories, with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan [7]. - On January 12, the price of anthracite in the Jincheng market remained stable. The price of low-sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of 1,500 yuan/ton including tax in cash [8]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of quasi-primary coke at Rizhao Port's flat price is 1,470 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 3.29%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.02%, and a decrease of 10.37% compared with the same period. The current price of quasi-primary coke at Qingdao Port's ex-warehouse price is 1,470 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.38%, a month-on-month increase of 1.38%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.26%, and a decrease of 7.55% compared with the same period [9]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,110 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.89%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.77%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.93%, and a decrease of 5.93% compared with the same period. The current price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,540 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.32%, a month-on-month increase of 1.99%, a year-on-year increase of 3.36%, and an increase of 3.36% compared with the same period. The current price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,650 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.94%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.94%, a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, and an increase of 7.84% compared with the same period [9]. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract of coke futures is 1,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.35%. The highest price is 1,783 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,745 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 22,252 lots, a decrease of 57 lots, and the open interest is 38,970 lots, an increase of 922 lots [13]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the active contract of coking coal futures is 1,238 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.21%. The highest price is 1,246 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,202 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 1,597,170 lots, an increase of 96,465 lots, and the open interest is 512,625 lots, a decrease of 6,987 lots [13]. Related Charts - Coke Inventory: The report provides charts of the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory [13][14][15]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The report provides charts of the coking coal inventory at the mine mouth, the coking coal inventory of all sample independent coking plants, port coking coal inventory, and the coking coal inventory of 247 sample steel mills [18][20][21]. - Other Charts: The report also provides charts of domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [24][25][29]. Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals of coke itself are still relatively weak, but the upward drivers of economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, driving the coke futures to rebound from the low level [5][31]. - Coking Coal: After the New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short-term fundamentals are difficult to show obvious improvement, but the positive drivers such as economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production reduction during the Spring Festival are gradually emerging, driving the coking coal futures to rebound from the low level [5][31].