钢材&铁矿石日报：商品情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡走高-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.60%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing open interest. With supply increasing and demand weak, the fundamental contradiction has accumulated. Although the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, the rebar price is expected to continue the oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil also oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.55%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. In the current situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are weak, and the price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and its trend is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.92%, and both volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the supply of iron ore is high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and pre - holiday restocking support. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price maintains a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, 482 projects started across the country with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start - up investment in December were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of January 12, 2026, 21 car companies announced their 2025 production and sales data. These 21 car companies sold a total of 25.0233 million vehicles in 2025. BYD led the domestic market with sales of 4.6024 million vehicles. SAIC Group ranked first in production with 4.602 million vehicles in 2025, followed by BYD with 4.5374 million vehicles. 18 car companies saw their sales increase in 2025. XPeng Motors had the highest growth rate of 125.94%, followed by Leapmotor with 103.10%, and BAIC BluePark with 84.06% [8]. - Since January 12, 2026, Handan has launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which is expected to be lifted around January 17 due to poor atmospheric diffusion conditions [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan, and the national average was 3,341 yuan. The price changes were 20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 4 yuan respectively [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan, and the national average was 3,311 yuan. The price changes were 20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 5 yuan respectively [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,970 yuan with a change of - 10 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,090 yuan with no change [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 825 yuan with a change of 7 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet - basis): The price was 777 yuan with no change [10]. - Freight rates: Australian freight was 7.84 yuan with a change of - 0.08 yuan, and Brazilian freight was 21.13 yuan with a change of - 0.46 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 108.34 yuan with a change of 0.49 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR): The price was 108.50 yuan with a change of 0.30 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,165 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.60%. The highest price was 3,174 yuan, the lowest was 3,141 yuan, the trading volume was 957,432 lots (a decrease of 212,075 lots), and the open interest was 1,726,703 lots (an increase of 11,840 lots) [13]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,311 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The highest price was 3,320 yuan, the lowest was 3,289 yuan, the trading volume was 408,729 lots (a decrease of 106,874 lots), and the open interest was 1,427,498 lots (an increase of 10,408 lots) [13]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 822.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92%. The highest price was 826.0 yuan, the lowest was 817.0 yuan, the trading volume was 272,044 lots (an increase of 1,717 lots), and the open interest was 654,834 lots (an increase of 14,950 lots) [13]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 - 2026 [15][21][25]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, inventory of 247 steel mills, and inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [23][24][26]. - Steel mill production: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][33][35]. 5. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened. The weekly output increased by 2.82 tons, and the demand decreased by 25.48 tons. With the accumulation of fundamental contradictions, the rebar price is under pressure in the off - season. Although there is positive commodity sentiment and cost support, it is expected to continue the oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output increased by 1.00 tons, and the demand decreased by 2.43 tons. With high inventory and weakening demand, the price is under pressure. Although the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The inventory is rising, and the demand improvement is limited due to the poor profitability of steel mills and the off - season steel market. The supply is at a relatively high level. Although there is warm commodity sentiment and pre - holiday restocking support, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [41].