PTA期货：阶段性承压调整

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the PTA futures market was volatile. The TA2605 contract closed at 5,128 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. Currently, the real - world fundamentals of PTA and PX are weaker than in November. The recent upward trend in PTA and PX during the off - season of the polyester industry chain is an early reaction to the expected strong supply - demand pattern of PX and PTA in the first half of next year. PX supply remains high in January, PTA supply has increased, and the destocking speed has slowed down, with expected inventory accumulation starting in late January. The terminal has entered the traditional off - season, and polyester factories are expected to reduce their load as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The PTA futures market was volatile this week. The TA2605 contract closed at 5,128 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. The real - world fundamentals of PTA and PX are weaker than in November, and PTA has limited self - driving force [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,108.00 | 5,110.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.04% | Daily | | PTA output | 10,000 tons | 145.25 | 143.11 | 2.14 | 1.50% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 89.25 | 86.83 | 2.42 | 2.79% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 57.89 | 59.55 | - 1.66 | - 2.79% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 339 | 363 | - 24.00 | - 6.61% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | yuan/ton | 4,958 | 4,977 | - 19.00 | - 0.38% | Daily | [4] PX Market Analysis - PX Spot and Futures Market Review: There are figures showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX prices in Taiwan, and related price spreads [8][12]. - PX Supply Analysis: Figures show PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][15][17]. PTA Market Analysis - PTA Spot and Futures Market Review: There is a figure showing the PTA futures closing price (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. - PTA Supply Analysis: Figures show PTA monthly production, operating rate, and social inventory [22][27]. - PTA Consumption Analysis: Figures show PTA export volume, monthly production of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chip, filament, and staple fiber, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [28][30][32]. - Cost - Profit Analysis: There is a figure showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [39].