纯碱周报：新产能投放压力较大，震荡运行-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose, with increased low - price transactions and an improved atmosphere. New capacity has significant release pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1300 level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level [1]. 2. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [2] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Week - on - Week Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) | Yuan/ton | 7 | 41 | - 34 | - 82.93 | | Enterprise Inventory | 10,000 tons | 157.27 | 140.83 | 16.44 | 11.67 | | Weekly Output | 10,000 tons | 75.36 | 69.71 | 5.65 | 8.11 | | Dual - ton Profit of Dual - alkali Method | Yuan/ton | - 40 | - 35.5 | - 4.50 | - 12.68 | | Ammonia - alkali Method Profit | Yuan/ton | - 57.85 | - 95.4 | 37.55 | 39.36 | | Downstream Float Glass Start - up Rate | % | 71.96 | 73.03 | - 1.07 | - 1.47 | | Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Start - up Rate | % | 67.04 | 67.2 | - 0.16 | - 0.24 | [3] 4. Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with narrow price adjustments. The futures price fluctuated steadily, and the basis in the East China market showed a slight rebound [5]. 5. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The theoretical profit of dual - alkali method soda ash was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36% [7]. 6. Demand Situation Analysis - Photovoltaic Glass: As of January 8, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,160 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year increase of 8.64%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Component enterprises plan to raise prices, but actual transactions will continue to be negotiated. - Float Glass: As of January 8, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. The production is expected to decline slightly this week [10]. 7. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons [13]. 8. Position Analysis - As of January 9, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 773,207, an increase of 1,952. The short positions were 963,988, an increase of 22,552. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].