棕榈油期货：区间震荡重心上移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, palm oil spot and futures prices rose slightly, showing a pattern of "first falling then rising, oscillating strongly". The core drivers were the expected seasonal production cut in the producing areas and the warming of macro - sentiment, while the accumulation of domestic port inventories suppressed the basis [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil imports in December 2025 were 33,292 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.64%; production was 1,829,761 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; exports were 1,316,522 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; inventory was 3,050,598 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%. It is predicted that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2025 will reach a record 20.28 million tons, higher than 19.34 million tons in 2024 [1]. - In the short term, palm oil prices are supported by futures and stocking demand, but the inventory accumulation pressure limits the increase, and high - price transactions are weak. The price center of palm oil moves up, and the operation suggestion is mainly range trading [1]. - Factors to be concerned about include Malaysia's palm oil production and export data, the repair change of the soybean - palm oil price difference, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Palm oil spot and futures prices rose slightly last week, with the core drivers being the expected seasonal production cut in the producing areas and the warming of macro - sentiment. Domestic port inventory accumulation suppressed the basis [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil import, production, export, and inventory data in December 2025 are provided, and the 2025 production forecast is given [1]. - In the short term, palm oil prices are supported by futures and stocking demand, but inventory pressure limits the increase. The price center moves up, and range trading is recommended. Key factors to watch are also mentioned [1]. 3.2 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The table shows the palm oil ship - date quotes and import profit calculations for different months in 2026. For example, for the February ship - date, the CNF in South China is 1021, the import cost is 8768, the disk price is 8616, and the profit against the disk is - 152 [2]. 3.3 Other Analyses - There are various charts related to the palm oil market, including the main contract basis, palm oil purchase ship quantity statistics, expected arrival volume, Malaysia's refined palm oil production, China's palm oil liquid import quantity, Malaysia's palm oil export quantity, and palm oil's profit against the disk for the May ship - date [3][6][7][11][13][16][17]