房地产行业报告（2026.1.5-2026.1.11）：预计一季度新房成交数据承压

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the new housing transaction data is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter due to the release of pent-up demand before the Spring Festival and high base effects [5] - Regulatory measures have been introduced to alleviate short-term liquidity pressures for real estate companies, including a five-year extension for eligible projects on the "white list" [5] - The government is promoting a package of policies to support consumer upgrades and housing demand [5] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.1627 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 3.4268 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25.5% [6] - The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 2.254 million square meters, down 27.4% year-on-year and 9.2% month-on-month [6] - First-tier cities saw an average transaction area of 0.5052 million square meters, down 35.7% year-on-year [6] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - Last week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 20 cities was 2.1592 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 3.9633 million square meters for the year, down 15.3% year-on-year [7] - The listing index for second-hand housing was 7.38, up 62.9% month-on-month, while the listing price index was 146.9, down 0.55% month-on-month [7] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 47 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 30 plots sold [27] - The average transaction price for residential land was 4,715 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 1.26% [27] Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 5.07% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [30] - The Hong Kong property service and management index rose by 4.36%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, which increased by 0.38% [30]