供应扰动推升锡价近历史高位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends investors to continue holding long positions or to add to them on dips [10][12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 12, 2026, tin prices surged, breaking through 375,000 yuan/ton during trading hours, hitting a new high for the year due to supply disruptions and high - market sentiment [4][6] - Tin prices may show a strong and volatile trend, with a short - term focus on the SHFE Tin fluctuation range of 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton. If prices break through, the upper limit could shift to around 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [10][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Review - Indonesia's tin supply may be constrained in Q1 2026 due to RKAB approvals, and as of January 7, 2026, the tin trading volume on its two major exchanges was 0 [4][6] - In Africa, political instability and underdeveloped infrastructure limit tin mine production and exports, with high - risk levels. For example, on January 8, 2026, the Chinese Embassy in the Democratic Republic of Congo reported security issues in South Kivu Province, and there were protests in key mining cities [5][6] Market Outlook Supply Side - The domestic mine tightening situation remains unresolved, constraining refined tin production. As of January 9, 2026, the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [8][11] - China's cumulative refined tin production from January - December 2025 was 0.1787 million tonnes, down 2.8% year - on - year, and the single - month production in December 2025 was 1.60 tonnes, down 1.8% year - on - year [8][11] - Tin inventories have decreased recently. As of January 9, 2026, domestic tin ingot social inventory was 7,478 tons, down 1,042 tons from the previous period. By the end of December 2025, domestic tin ingot company inventory was 3,950 tons, down 1,400 tons from the previous period and 2,070 tons year - on - year [8][11] - Ongoing mine tightening will cause raw material shortages for smelters and low tin concentrate processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin production [9][12] Demand Side - The US and Europe are in interest - rate cut cycles and have fiscal expansions, which are expected to positively impact the global economy [9][12] - The semiconductor sector is growing rapidly, and consumption in photovoltaics and electric vehicles is expected to rise further. Considering the need to rebuild the supply chain inventory, tin ingot demand will grow sustainably [9][12]