Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in. The top liquor companies are stabilizing prices and increasing dividends, making them attractive for investment. Long-term focus should be on high-quality leading companies with strong performance certainty, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [2] - The consumer goods sector is focusing on high-growth areas, with some segments still benefiting from new products and channels. The market is likely to give valuation premiums to "scarce" growth targets, suggesting attention to companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage, which are showing good growth trends [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry increased by 2.12% in the week of January 5-9, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 3.82%. Among 31 sub-industries, it ranked 26th. The sub-sectors with the highest to lowest performance were: pre-processed foods (+6.72%), soft drinks (+5.79%), snacks (+4.47%), beer (+3.16%), seasoning and fermented products (+2.49%), liquor (+2.46%), and others [3][10] - The top five performing stocks in the food and beverage sector were Ziyuan Foods (+33.97%), Qianwei Central Kitchen (+22.52%), Anji Foods (+18.34%), Yangyuan Beverage (+14.78%), and Haoxiangni (+14.75%). The bottom five were *ST Spring (-10.61%), Xianle Health (-4.29%), Yili Group (-3.22%), Ximai Foods (-2.31%), and Shuanghui Development (-2.15%) [3][8] Liquor Sector Insights - The launch of i Moutai has been successful, with significant consumer engagement. Since January 1, the product has sold out quickly, adding over 2.7 million new users and over 400,000 transaction users within nine days. The product has ranked first in the Apple App Store's shopping category for three consecutive days, indicating strong consumer reach [3] - The pricing strategy for Moutai has been adjusted, with the maximum purchase limit per person per day reduced from 12 bottles to 6, aiming to broaden consumer reach rather than short-term sales impact. As of January 9, the price for Moutai was 1540 yuan per bottle, reflecting a weekly increase of 30 yuan [3] - The liquor market is expected to maintain upward momentum during the Spring Festival season, driven by the consumer base expansion from i Moutai and replenishment demand following inventory reduction [3] Snack Sector Developments - The company "Mingming Hen Mang" has successfully passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, showing improved profitability. As of September 2025, the company had 19,517 stores, with revenue increasing by 75.2% year-on-year to 46.37 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising by 240.8% to 1.81 billion yuan. The gross margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 9.7% [3]
食品饮料行业跟踪报告:i茅台抢购热度高,C端触达效果显著
Shanghai Aijian Securities·2026-01-12 10:43