Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026, the bond market experienced significant adjustments. The main reasons were that the central bank's open - market bond purchases in December 2025 were only 50 billion yuan, not increasing as expected, and the stock market had a strong start, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect was the more important factor suppressing the bond market. It is expected that the allocation funds in the bond market will be diverted by the stock market. In the next week, the release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, while long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches the 1.9% stage high, investors can enter the market at an appropriate time [1][16][17] - Last week, gold in the cross - year market quickly rebounded to the previous high of $4,500 per ounce after a short - term plunge and is about to break through the previous high. The RMB exchange rate also had a short - term correction, but based on the expectation of loose fiscal and monetary policies in major global economies and their higher tendency of fiscal deficit monetization than China, the previous bullish view is continued. Crude oil is marginally bullish in terms of total demand and short - term bullish but long - term bearish in terms of total supply, and is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern [2] - In the medium - term thinking framework, the two - sector model of "an overheated technology sector + a cold traditional sector" should be continued. The growth engine shows structural characteristics, with monetary policy supporting the traditional sector and fiscal policy guiding the technology sector. The driving force of investment is greater than that of consumption, and domestic demand is more important than external demand, which is not limited to specific transitional economies [2][20] - The US unemployment rate in December 2026 slightly decreased, but new employment was lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls also decreased, and the labor market is gradually entering a low - speed equilibrium stage, which makes the Fed more inclined to maintain the current interest rate level. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 24.4%, which is relatively low [4][21][26] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints - Analysis of bond market adjustment in the first week of 2026: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.8bp. Through daily analysis, factors such as the relaxation of bond fund redemption fee regulations, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the central bank's bond - buying volume, and market expectations all affected the bond market. The main reasons for the bond market adjustment were the central bank's bond - buying volume in December 2025 not meeting expectations and the strong start of the stock market [1][11][16] - Analysis of future trends: The release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.9%, investors can enter the market [1][16][17] 2. Summary of Domestic and Foreign Data 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - market operations: From January 5 to 9, 2026, the net investment in open - market operations showed a large - scale net withdrawal in the early stage and a net investment in the later stage. The total amount of net investment was - 122.14 billion yuan [36] - Interest rate data: The money market interest rate decreased last week compared with the previous week. The issuance volume of interest - rate bonds last week was 918.813 billion yuan, and the total repayment amount was 697.556 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 221.257 billion yuan [37][38][41] 2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity price data: Steel prices generally rose, and the official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. The price of rebar rose by 17 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coils rose by 20 yuan/ton. The prices of zinc, lead, copper, and aluminum futures all increased to varying degrees [55] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Issuance scale and type: Last week, 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 117.664 billion yuan, including 29.23 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 87.434 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 1 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 117.664 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [65] - Issuing regions: Three provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and two provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 29.23 billion yuan. From January 1 to last week, the total amount of local special refinancing special bonds issued nationwide was 2,202.521 billion yuan [69] - Early redemption of urban investment bonds: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds last week was 1.33 billion yuan, from Zhejiang and Gansu provinces. From November 15, 2024, to last week, the total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds nationwide was 118.207 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [75][79] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - Transaction volume and turnover rate: The stock of local government bonds last week was 54.73 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 310.211 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.57%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, and the top three trading - active maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 7Y [82] - Yield to maturity: The yield to maturity of local government bonds decreased across the board last week [87] 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for this Month - Not elaborated in detail, only a chart of the issuance plan is provided [88] 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Total issuance and net financing amount: Last week, 336 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 269.892 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.743 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 131.149 billion yuan, an increase of 192.849 billion yuan compared with the previous week [88] - Issuance by type: The net financing amount of urban investment bonds was 28.226 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 102.923 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 38.817 billion yuan, that of medium - term notes was 47.129 billion yuan, that of enterprise bonds was - 2.881 billion yuan, that of corporate bonds was 45.019 billion yuan, and that of private placement notes was 3.065 billion yuan [90][93] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills decreased by 4.43bp, those of medium - term notes increased by 11.93bp, and those of corporate bonds decreased by 58.69bp [103] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds last week was 558.53 billion yuan, with short - term financing bills having a trading volume of 159.816 billion yuan, medium - term notes having a trading volume of 294.315 billion yuan, enterprise bonds having a trading volume of 11.128 billion yuan, corporate bonds having a trading volume of 38.844 billion yuan, and private placement notes having a trading volume of 54.428 billion yuan [103] 4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yield to maturity of state - owned development bonds increased across the board. The yields of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [104][105][106] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes narrowed across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally showed a differentiated trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [108][109][113] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [115][119][123] 4.7 Trading Activity - The most actively traded credit bonds last week were mainly from large - scale enterprises such as Yili and Huijin. The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, daily consumption, and materials [127] 4.8 Issuer's Rating Changes - Not elaborated in detail, only a table of issuer's rating or outlook improvement is provided [128]
固收周观：股债跷跷板效应凸显，宽松基调下曲线陡峭（2026年第2期）
Soochow Securities·2026-01-12 10:42