Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron Ore: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, meaning a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a long bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the行情 is fermenting on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is still optimistic, but the weak demand restricts the upside space. The steel market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern, and the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be strongly volatile, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are recommended to buy on dips [1][2][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market rebounded today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production slightly increased, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory was slowly depleted. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces were gradually restarted, and hot metal production increased in the short term, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The overall market sentiment is optimistic, and the market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market rose slightly today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally and were still strong year - on - year. Brazilian shipments decreased significantly, Australian shipments were basically flat, and the volume sent to China increased. The supply from non - mainstream regions improved. Domestic port inventory increased significantly last week and is expected to continue to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, blast furnaces that had regular maintenance have restarted, and hot metal production increased last week. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has been increasing continuously, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward during the day. Coke transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coke prices on the market are at a premium, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,252 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and transaction prices increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, downstream hot metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and currently, the demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong. Coking coal prices on the market are at a premium to Mongolian coal, and prices are likely to be strongly volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices dropped significantly during the day. Driven by the market rebound, manganese ore spot prices increased. There is a structural problem with manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon - manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The manganese ore spot transaction prices increased last week. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased seasonally. Silicon - manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices dropped significantly during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, prices are relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a certain decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, hot metal production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand is still resilient. Silicon - iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]
黑色金属日报-20260112
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-01-12 11:08