铁矿日报：市场情绪转强，库存往下游转移-20260112

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the iron ore industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market shows a gradually strengthening trend with oscillations. The supply side has new shipments starting to decline, the demand side is slightly recovering, and although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below, maintaining an overall upward - trending and oscillating state [4]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary Market行情态势回顾 - Futures Price: The main iron ore futures contract oscillated slightly stronger, closing at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.98%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 270,000 lots, the open interest was 655,000 lots, and the sunk funds were 11.849 billion yuan. The short - term oscillation was slightly stronger, and it was necessary to pay attention to the test near the previous high [1]. - Spot Price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 833, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 708. The swap's main contract was at 109.2 (+0.9) US dollars/ton, and both spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - Basis and Spread: The Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 867.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 44.7 yuan/ton, which slightly widened. The iron ore 1 - 5 spread was 41.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 20.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure and a positive basis, with limited downside and short - term continued oscillation on the strong side [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: After the year - end shipping rush, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions weakened simultaneously. Although the current arrival volume increased month - on - month, the previous high shipments were expected to support high arrival volumes, and there were expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - Demand: Hot metal production recovered month - on - month. After the previous blast furnace maintenance and复产, the steel mill profitability rate slightly recovered, and the restocking gradually started but was still slow. There was still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, the port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2]. - Inventory: The port continued to accumulate inventory, the berthing congestion increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to some extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average, and the release of restocking demand was still slow [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: In the first quarter, policy expectations were gradually rising. The manufacturing PMI in December rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The national subsidy policy for 2026 was released, with certain optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for the early - batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the disbursement and use of various funds. Recently, multiple major infrastructure projects were approved or approved, with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments not fully distributed in October, the investment side was expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3]. - Overseas: Trump might announce the nomination for the new Fed Chairman in January. Currently, in market expectations, Hassett was still the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path might be faster in the next one to two years [3].