白糖日报-20260112

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. It is advisable to consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Disk: SR09 closed at 5,291, down 8 (-0.15%); SR01 closed at 5,316, up 6 (0.11%); SR05 closed at 5,285, down 3 (-0.06%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [3] - Spot Prices: Spot prices in different regions varied, with prices in places like Liuzhou at 5390 yuan/ton, Kunming at 5230 yuan/ton, etc. The price in Nanning decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3] - Basis: The basis in different regions also showed differences, such as 105 in Liuzhou, - 55 in Kunming, etc [3] - Inter - monthly Spreads: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 31, down 9; SR09 - SR05 spread was 6, down 5; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 25, down 14 [3] - Import Profits: The quota - within and quota - outside prices, as well as the spreads with domestic prices and futures prices, were provided for Brazilian and Thai imports [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - In December, the forecasted arrival of tariff - quota - outside raw sugar was 268,600 tons. From the 25/26 sugar - making season to the end of December, Brazil had cumulatively exported 1,447,100 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 878,000 tons. The estimated import volume of sugar in December was between 400,000 - 500,000 tons, higher than last year's 390,000 tons. The total sugar import volume in 2025 was expected to be around 4.8 million tons, higher than 4.35 million tons in 2024 [5] - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills had started production, 2 less than the same period last season. The crushed sugarcane was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89% [5] - In December, Brazil exported 385,300 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 331,000 tons. In 2025, Brazil cumulatively exported 4,767,500 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 1,747,200 tons [6] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease as the sugarcane harvest nears completion. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to an over - expected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and the strong performance of bulk commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8] - Domestically, the high processing cost of white sugar (most sugar mills in Guangxi have a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton) and the bottom - building trend of the US sugar price on the external market (the quota - outside cost of imported Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton) support the white sugar price. But considering the peak sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar increase in the 25/26 season, there is significant pressure on the upper oscillation platform of white sugar prices. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. Consider low - buying and high - selling within the range [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory, production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of white sugar in different regions and time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [11][14][15]