棉系周报：基本面有所支撑，棉花震荡略偏强-20260112

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Fundamental Support, Cotton Fluctuates Slightly Bullish [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is supported by fundamental factors and is expected to fluctuate slightly bullish. However, due to the recent rapid rise in cotton prices, there is a short - term risk of correction, and risk control should be noted [8][28][44] Summary by Directory Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The fundamental contradictions in the US cotton market are not significant, and it is expected that the US cotton price will continue to fluctuate within a range. As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.6675 million tons, accounting for 85.8% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 11% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 77.5%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.5%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year [8] - US Cotton Sales: As of the week of January 1, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 27% and a 49% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 34,900 tons, a weekly increase of 10% and an 18% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - CFTC: As of January 2, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 year decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [8] - Brazil: As of December 13, 2025, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 10.1% completed, a 4.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year. As of January 3, the planting was 31.2% completed, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 0.1 percentage point faster year - on - year [8] - India: According to the latest report of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), as of November 30, 2025, compared with the previous month's assessment, the production increased by 80,000 tons, imports increased by 90,000 tons, exports increased by 20,000 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 90,000 tons, resulting in a 230,000 - ton increase in ending inventory [8] - Global: According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in December, the changes were not significant. The global cotton production in December was 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons from the previous month. The total consumption decreased by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the ending inventory remained relatively stable at 16.54 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - Supply Side: The new cotton picking is basically over, and the ginning mills' processing is coming to an end, with the operating rate gradually decreasing. As of January 7, 2025, the cumulative public inspection volume was 6.650735 million tons, a 14.27% year - on - year increase. As of January 2, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2888 million tons, a 123,800 - ton (2.40%) increase from the previous week [28] - Demand Side: The current market sales situation is good. As of January 9, the cumulative sales volume of lint cotton was 4.093 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, 2.318 million tons more than the average of the past four years. As of the week of January 8, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 64.7%, the same as the previous week. The yarn price increased significantly this week, and the yarn sales slowed down. Spinning mills mainly processed previous orders, and the operating rate changed little [28] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Internal and External Price Difference: The report shows the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [49][50] - Mid - end Situation: It includes the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [53] - Cotton Inventory: It presents the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [55] - Spot - Futures Basis: It shows the basis trends of cotton in different months and the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton [58] Option Strategy - Volatility Judgment: The historical volatility (HV) on the previous day was 3.9092, and the volatility decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today [42] - Option Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [42] Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: The current cotton sales progress is still fast, and the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity in the new year support the fundamental upward trend. However, due to the recent rapid rise in cotton prices, there is a short - term risk of correction [44] - Single - sided Strategy: It is expected that the US cotton price will mostly fluctuate within a range in the future. The positions of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton have decreased recently, and it is recommended that long positions consider taking profits and closing positions [44] - Arbitrage Strategy: Wait and see [45] - Option Strategy: Wait and see [45]