原油周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate. The current situation shows an oversupply of crude oil, but geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may impact the price [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026, with the next meeting scheduled for February 1 [4]. - During the off - peak season of crude oil demand, EIA data indicates that U.S. crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventory increased more than expected, leading to an overall increase in oil product inventory. U.S. crude oil production slightly decreased but remained near the historical high, and the number of U.S. rigs continued to rise slightly [4]. - Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil as required by the U.S., the U.S. may raise tariffs on Indian products. Reliance Industries stated that its Jamnagar refinery has not received any Russian oil in the past three weeks and does not expect any Russian crude oil deliveries in January [4]. - The crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the U.S. are low. The market still worries about crude oil demand as the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. Middle East exports have increased, and global floating crude oil storage is high, resulting in an oversupply of crude oil [4]. - Trump said that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The U.S. Energy Secretary declared that the U.S. will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. Currently, Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [4]. - The unrest in Iran has continued to escalate, with the domestic internet cut off. Trump threatened to interfere in Iran again. The situation in Iran should be monitored as its crude oil production is relatively large. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations have not made further progress, and Trump passed a sanctions bill against Russia, authorizing the imposition of tariffs on countries importing Russian oil [4]. 3.2 Oil Price Trend - Oil prices first declined and then rebounded. The statement from Trump about Venezuelan oil transfer and U.S. control measures led to a weak and volatile crude oil price. Subsequently, with the escalation of the situation in Iran and the U.S. seizure of oil tankers, the crude oil price rebounded [9]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply Side - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in October decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 2.8481 million barrels per day, and its production in November 2025 decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2.848 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production cuts in Iraq and Iran [14]. - OPEC+'s crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 4.306 million barrels per day [14]. - U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 1.3811 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 245,000 barrels month - on - month to 413.5 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week of September 30, 2022, and increasing for 24 consecutive weeks [14]. 3.4 U.S. Economic Data - On the evening of the 9th, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of non - farm payrolls in the U.S. in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 70,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The total number of non - farm payrolls in October and November was revised down by 76,000. After the release of the non - farm data, the swap market believed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January was zero [17]. 3.5 Performance of Refined Oil in Europe and the U.S. - The crack spread of U.S. gasoline increased by $1.5 per barrel, while that of European gasoline decreased by $2.0 per barrel. The crack spread of U.S. diesel increased by $2.0 per barrel, while that of European diesel decreased by $1.5 per barrel [27]. 3.6 U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 1.9871 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%, changing from being higher than the same period last year to being lower. Among them, the weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 4.59% to 817,000 barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 868,800 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.49%. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 5.45% to 319,500 barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 362,900 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.25%. The decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 0.77% month - on - month decrease in the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products [33]. 3.7 U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that as of the week of January 2, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 3.832 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 447,000 barrels, and was 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory increased by 7.702 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 3.186 million barrels. Refined oil inventory increased by 5.594 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 2.109 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 728,000 barrels. Overall, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventory increased more than expected, resulting in a continued increase in the overall oil product inventory [42]. 3.8 Geopolitical Risks - Iran Situation: Trump threatened to interfere again, and the Iranian parliament speaker warned the U.S. of retaliation. Trump is considering potential measures against Iran, and the Iranian president is willing to meet with protest groups. 111 Iranian security personnel have died in the recent unrest [48]. - South American Situation: Trump cancelled the planned second - wave attack on Venezuela and will meet with the Colombian president in early February. Venezuela and the U.S. have initiated a "exploratory diplomatic" process. Trump pressured large oil companies to invest $100 billion in Venezuela, and Venezuela has provided 30 million barrels of oil to the U.S. The Venezuelan acting president vowed to rescue Maduro and his wife [48]. - Russia - Ukraine Situation: In retaliation for the attack on Putin's residence, Russia launched a missile attack on Ukraine. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the Ukraine situation on the 12th [48].