能源日报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the short - term drive up oil prices, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in the global crude oil market in Q1 2026 [3] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil mainly follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical situations affect both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets [4] - The recent rebound in crude oil has little impact on asphalt futures prices, and the reduction of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply [5] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Iran is tense but controllable, and the US continues to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, which drives up oil prices in the short - term [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply - demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus restricts the upward space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical tensions are the key driving factors [4] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, US military actions against Venezuela may affect heavy - crude oil supply, and domestic refineries may increase fuel oil use as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Inventory consumption may appear in late March, and raw material procurement demand may support the high - sulfur market after the Spring Festival in mid - February [4] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Azur refinery's CDU device has fully resumed operation, and the supply scale is expected to gradually increase. The overseas supply rebound brings loose pressure, keeping the fundamentals weak [4] Asphalt - The recent crude oil rebound has not affected asphalt futures prices significantly [5] - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, and the current market has priced in the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [5]