软商品日报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various soft commodities are different, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and others affected by seasonal factors. Overall, most commodities are currently recommended for a wait - and - see approach, with only 20 - rubber and natural rubber having a bullish strategy [2][3][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline with reduced positions in the main contract. Spot sales were average, and the mainstream basis range of cotton spot remained stable. As of December, the national commercial cotton inventory increased. It's in the off - season, but demand is stable. The processing volume of lint cotton increased. The reduction in Xinjiang's planting area was less than expected. Spinning enterprises' raw material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. India's production in the 25/26 season is progressing fast with a significant increase, while Thailand's is slow and below expectations. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's production and sales both decreased. The production data is relatively bullish. The slow production in Guangxi may lead to a upward repair of futures prices if production doesn't increase later. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In Gansu, procurement was active, and in Shaanxi, the price was stable. During the Spring Festival stocking, merchants mainly packaged their own goods, and the procurement of farmers' goods was less. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. Apple quality is poor this year, but the purchase price is high, and the hoarding sentiment may affect the de - stocking speed. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber first declined and then rose. The spot prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were stable. Global natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. The domestic tire operating rate declined, and rubber inventories increased. Demand is slowly recovering, and the cost support is strengthening. The strategy for RU&NR is bullish, and for BR, it's to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp slightly declined today. Limited by weak downstream demand, its short - term upward space may be restricted. The inventory at major Chinese pulp ports increased. The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaved pulp is narrowing. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp for rigid demand, and the increase in base paper prices is weak. It's recommended to wait for a significant correction [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang increased. The external price decreased, and the domestic spot price was weak, with a short - term decrease in arrivals. The daily average outbound volume at 13 national ports increased, and the total inventory at national ports increased slightly but remained low with relatively small pressure. Low inventory supports the price. It's recommended to wait and see [8]