钢材：基本面矛盾有限，区间震荡为主

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - This week, the steel market showed the operating characteristics of "driven by macro and funds, with weakening fundamentals" and maintained a range - bound oscillation. Although the price strengthened at the beginning of the week driven by the rotation of commodity price increases, the macro - sentiment cooled significantly due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate cut intensity caused by the worse - than - expected US employment data. At the industrial level, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand for rebar was established, with a slight increase in output, a significant decline in apparent demand, and inventory turning from decreasing to increasing, indicating increasing fundamental pressure. Looking ahead, steel demand is seasonally weakening. As steel mills gradually resume production, rebar inventory accumulation is becoming evident. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage restocking, the cost side still supports steel prices, and it is expected that prices will maintain an oscillatory operation [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market Review and Outlook - The steel market this week was characterized by "macro and fund - driven with weakening fundamentals" and oscillated within a range. The price initially strengthened due to commodity - price rotation but later weakened due to US employment data concerns. At the industrial level, rebar supply increased while demand decreased, and inventory started to accumulate. In the future, demand will weaken seasonally, rebar inventory will accumulate as mills resume production, but cost support will keep prices oscillating [1] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The daily average hot - metal output of steel mills was 229.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons (0.91%). Rebar steel - mill inventory was 147.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.56 million tons (6.14%). Rebar social inventory was 290.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 million tons (2.66%). Hot - rolled coil steel - mill inventory was 77.32 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5 million tons (- 6.07%). Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 290.81 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 million tons (0.75%) [3] Futures Market Review - The report presents multiple figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][6][8] Spot Market Review - The report shows figures related to the spot market, such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [13][14] Fundamental Data - The report provides figures related to fundamental data, including the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast - furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend charts, and seasonal analyses of rebar and hot - rolled coil steel - mill and social inventories [18][22][24][27]