水务行业2025年回顾和2026年展望（2025年12月）

Investment Rating - The report provides a stable outlook for the water industry, indicating a potential for continued investment growth due to ongoing infrastructure projects and government support [5][7]. Core Insights - The water industry in China is experiencing a stable investment environment, with significant government funding and a focus on improving water resource management and wastewater treatment capabilities [6][8]. - Urban water supply and wastewater treatment are key growth areas, with urban water supply capacity stabilizing and rural water supply still having development potential [14][16]. - The report highlights the importance of government subsidies in supporting the profitability of water enterprises, with a noted increase in operating revenues and net cash flows in recent years [26][28]. Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, national water conservancy construction investment reached 879.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, but still maintaining a high level [7]. - The total water resources in China are abundant, but unevenly distributed, with surface water quality improving, although northern regions still lag behind southern regions [14][15]. - Urban water supply and wastewater treatment are critical for industry growth, with urban water supply population reaching 564 million in 2024, and urban wastewater treatment capacity increasing [18][20]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent policies focus on enhancing water efficiency, expanding capacity, and improving profitability through stricter water conservation measures and wastewater treatment standards [8][10]. - The government is implementing a water resource tax reform, which is expected to enhance local fiscal capacity and promote sustainable water resource management [11][12]. Financial Performance - Water enterprises have shown fluctuating revenue growth, with total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 256.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.06% [26][28]. - The average total capital return rate for water enterprises has been declining, indicating potential profitability challenges [26][27]. - Cash flow from operating activities has been stable, with a net cash flow of 52.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting strong revenue realization capabilities [28][29]. Debt and Leverage - The total debt of water enterprises has been increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.27% from 2022 to 2024, primarily due to infrastructure investments [34][37]. - The debt structure is predominantly long-term, with long-term debt accounting for 75.15% as of September 2025 [38][39]. - The average asset-liability ratio has shown a slight increase, indicating a growing debt burden among water enterprises [37][40]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the water industry remains stable, characterized by regional monopolies and the presence of cross-regional operators [24]. - The report notes that the water industry is increasingly focusing on environmental governance and wastewater treatment, which require significant capital and technical expertise [24][25].