软商品日报：溢价回落-20260112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the cotton textile industry chain lies in the mismatch between the tightening supply - side expectations and the actual weak demand on the demand - side, leading to uncertainty in the subsequent market trend. Cotton prices are expected to continue to adjust downward, with a relatively limited downside space. For sugar, the basis between the futures and spot markets has basically been repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month has significant supply pressure, with weak short - term upward momentum, and there may be more imports due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the short - term demand pull from the double - festival stocking can be noted [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The core contradiction in the cotton textile industry chain determines the uncertainty of market trends. There's no new news about the reduction of cotton planting and production in Xinjiang. With the increasing wait - and - see sentiment in the downstream market and the year - end payment collection pressure, it's difficult for yarn prices to rise, and it's hard to give a strong positive feedback to the upstream. Internationally, the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of the short - term interest - rate cut expectation by the Fed bring pressure, but the expected reduction in Brazil's production, the worsening drought in the US cotton - growing areas, and the price difference advantage of US cotton at low levels make it difficult for prices to decline further. Cotton prices may adjust next week, with support around the 20 - day line [1] Sugar - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills have started production, 2 less than the same period last season. The amount of crushed sugarcane is 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production is 5.6297 million tons with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89%. The estimated cost of processing Brazilian sugar after tax is 4,008 yuan/ton within the quota and 5,090 yuan/ton outside the quota, with corresponding estimated profits of 1,512 yuan/ton and 430 yuan/ton compared to the Rizhao white - sugar spot price. The basis between the futures and spot markets has basically been repaired, and the near - month has large supply pressure with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets may attract more imports, and attention should be paid to the short - term demand pull from the double - festival stocking, with the possibility of buying at low prices [2]