鸡蛋周报：需求有所改善，蛋价略有回升-20260112

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: Demand Improves Slightly, Egg Prices Edge Up [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is driven by sentiment, with prices rising due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, but there is pressure to digest the rapid short - term increase. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price trend in 2026 will be affected by factors such as supply adjustment and seasonal demand [5][17] Summary by Section First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan/jin, also up 0.3 yuan/jin. The market was boosted by sentiment, but there was pressure to digest the rapid price increase. The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable, with a weekly average of around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From January 8th, the weekly egg chicken culling volume in the main production areas was 18.96 million, a 4.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 484 days, the same as the previous week. In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of January 9th, the corn price was around 2351 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price was 3190 yuan/ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2603 yuan/ton, and the cost per jin of eggs remained stable. As of January 8th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.13 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On January 18th, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7377 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years. As of December 18th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week. On December 17th, the vegetable price index and pork price both showed a slight recovery [16] 5. Trading Strategies - In the cash market, it is expected that the supply pressure will be greatly relieved in the first half of 2026, and the egg price will gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase will be limited. In the second half of the year, the supply is uncertain, and the price is likely to rise during the peak consumption season. In the futures market, it is recommended to consider building long positions at low prices for the May contract in the first - half peak season and short - term long positions with high - level closing for the August and September contracts. For the short - term February contract, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be considered for the distant - month contracts. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Not provided with specific summarized data 2. Spread and Basis - The document shows the basis and spread data of different contract months (January, May, September) from 2018 - 2025, but no specific summarized data is provided [24][25][28]