银河期货苹果日报-20260112

Group 1: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day [2] - Luochuan Semi - Commodity Paper - bagged 70 is 4.20 yuan, unchanged [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade Paper - bagged 80 is 4.10 yuan, unchanged [2] - Yiyuan Paper - bagged 70 is 2.50 yuan, unchanged [2] - Penglai First and Second - grade Paper - bagged 80 is 4.25 yuan, unchanged [2] - The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.80 yuan, down 0.07 [2] Futures Prices - AP01 has a value of 0, and the change is -9999 [2] - AP05 is 9630, and the change is not clearly presented [2] - AP10 is 8481, up 9 from the previous trading day [2] Price Differentials - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP01 is 8200, up 9999 [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP05 is -1430, up 59 [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP10 is -281.0, down 9 [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - This season's apple warehouse receipts have high costs due to low high - quality fruit rates, supporting the apple futures price [5] - The latest cold - storage apple outbound volume in the week of January 2nd is 10.47 million tons, and although the year - on - year volume decreased, the peak sales season is postponed due to the later Spring Festival [5] - As of January 2nd, the national cold - storage inventory is 7.3356 billion tons, at a low level only higher than the 2018/19 season [5] - The 5 - month contract has weakened recently due to the expected weak demand, but it may rise if the demand remains normal [5] Transaction Strategy - For the single - side strategy, hold the long position in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8] - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Other Market Data - As of January 7, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 7.209 billion tons, a decrease of 126,000 tons from last week, with a slightly faster de - stocking speed [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.25 million tons, a 18.19% month - on - month decrease and a 48.76% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume from January to November 2025 is 1.137 billion tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple export volume is about 1.216 billion tons, a 51.28% month - on - month increase and a 12.42% year - on - year increase [7] - The apple prices in the producing areas are stable, with the main market trend being flat. The cold - storage packaging volume in the producing areas has increased, but the merchants' stocking enthusiasm is average [7] - The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples above 70 in Luochuan cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period [7]