消费金融行业信用风险展望（2026年1月）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the consumer finance industry, with expectations of steady growth in market size but potential challenges in growth rates due to various economic factors [9][48]. Core Insights - The consumer finance industry is experiencing a slowdown in credit growth due to factors such as slow income growth, weak consumer confidence, and a shift in deposits towards investments and wealth management [9][10]. - The asset quality of consumer finance companies remains relatively stable, but there are signs of pressure due to increased bad debt transfers and retail credit risk exposure [9][10]. - The industry is facing a narrowing interest margin and compressed profit space, with a significant focus on self-operated business transformation and risk control capabilities as core competitive advantages [48][50]. Industry Policy and Regulatory Environment - In 2024, policies aimed at boosting consumption were implemented, but consumer performance did not meet expectations. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth decreased [10][11]. - Regulatory policies are pushing the consumer finance industry towards lower interest rates and stronger compliance, which may lead to increased competition and a focus on customer acquisition and risk management capabilities [15][17]. Industry Competition Landscape - The competition in the consumer finance market is intensifying, with commercial banks holding a significant position. The proportion of credit cards in consumer loans is declining, while self-operated consumer loans and internet finance platforms are gaining traction [18][19]. - The industry is characterized by a clear differentiation between leading companies and others, with top firms benefiting from lower funding costs and stronger risk control capabilities [50][51]. Business Operations and Financial Status - Consumer finance companies are expanding their service offerings, particularly in scenario-based loans, but the product structure remains heavily weighted towards cash loans [22][23]. - The average non-performing loan (NPL) rate for consumer finance companies decreased to 1.97% by the end of 2024, reflecting improved asset quality management [25][26]. - Financing costs for consumer finance companies have decreased, with many institutions reporting costs below 4% [30][31]. Capital Adequacy Level - The capital adequacy ratio for consumer finance companies was 13.04% at the end of 2024, indicating a decline but still within a sufficient range [39][40]. - The industry is facing challenges in capital replenishment, with limited new capital injections and a slowdown in the pace of capital increases [35][36]. Industry Bond Market Performance - The bond issuance activity among consumer finance companies increased in 2024, with a total of 33 bonds issued, reflecting a strong market recognition [40][41]. - The average coupon rate for bonds issued by consumer finance companies has been on a downward trend, indicating improved credit quality and market acceptance [42][43]. Future Outlook - The consumer finance industry is expected to continue expanding, driven by policies promoting consumption and increasing penetration in lower-tier markets, although growth rates may stabilize in the short term [48][49]. - The importance of self-operated business transformation and risk control capabilities is expected to rise, as companies adapt to regulatory pressures and market conditions [48][50].