油粕日报：偏强震荡-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil and meal industry is a bullish and volatile outlook [1][3] Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, influenced by the upcoming soybean auction and the USDA report. Attention should be paid to the auction transaction rate and the report results, as well as subsequent auction policies [1] - The palm oil market is likely to see a seasonal decline in inventory from January to February, with fundamentals gradually improving. It is recommended to buy on dips. The soybean oil sector should focus on the USDA report and the auction results of imported soybeans, while the rapeseed oil sector should watch whether Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China can open the window for Canadian rapeseed imports [3] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - On January 11, 2026, a US private exporter reported selling 198,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery in the 2025/26 season to an unknown destination [1] - As of January 7, 2026, the sowing of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop was 88.3% complete, up from 82% a week ago. 85% of the sown area was in suitable to optimal moisture conditions, down from 96.1% a week ago. 40% of the first - season soybeans entered the reproductive growth stage, with 10% in the flowering stage. The second - season soybean sowing progress reached 84% of the intended area [1] - China will auction 113 million tons of imported soybeans, and the USDA report will be released early tomorrow. The results of both may affect the short - term trend. Near - month contracts are affected by policies, and attention should be paid to the auction transaction rate and the USDA report results [1] Palm Oil - In December 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.46% month - on - month decrease. Exports were 1.3165 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase. The apparent demand was 331,000 tons, slightly down from 374,000 tons in the previous month. The inventory was 3.05 million tons, all within market expectations [2] - From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate remained flat. Production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month. Exports increased by 17.65% month - on - month [2]