尿素周报：盘面整理，偏弱震荡-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - After consecutive price increases, the urea market has entered a consolidation and correction phase. The fundamentals do not support a significant upward movement in the futures price. In the short - term, the market is expected to be weak and consolidate. Exports are unlikely to see a large number of quotas during the spring plowing season [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - After the digestion of previous pending orders, the trading atmosphere remains poor. Some factories have started to cut prices to attract orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures showed mixed trends. As of January 12, the main May contract of urea closed at 1783 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 5. Weekly trading volume was 14.6943 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9706 million tons; open interest was 7.3291 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6862 million tons. After the correction, the futures price is under pressure and has entered a consolidation and correction phase. The futures price increase was less than that of the spot price, and the basis weakened. As of January 12, the 05 - contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 20 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton. On January 12, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,200, a week - on - week increase of 824 [6][9]. 3.3 Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly production increased. From January 1 to January 7, urea weekly production was 1.3716 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%, with an average daily production of 195,900 tons. Coal - based production increased significantly, while gas - based production decreased. It is expected that two enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of January 12, 2026, the national urea daily production was 202,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.24%. Coal prices were supported to rise, and domestic liquefied natural gas prices also increased last week [13][15]. 3.4 Urea Demand - side - As of January 12, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The compound fertilizer market is under pressure at the raw material end, and the price remains high and volatile. The compound fertilizer factory is expected to reduce the load in mid - to late January. From January 2 to January 9, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 54.35%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to gradually reduce the load near the end of the year. As of January 9, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 1.0222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%, significantly lower than the same period last year but still at a relatively high level in the past five years. The port sample inventory was 135,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons from the previous week [18][20]. 3.5 International Market - International urea prices are rising steadily. The Indian NFL urea import tender price is higher than expected, and the EU's attitude towards the carbon border adjustment mechanism tax is loosening. However, China is about to enter the spring supply - guarantee and price - stabilization period, and the fifth batch of exports is not expected to be implemented quickly. As of January 12, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in China and other regions all showed varying degrees of increase [21][23].